Electricity.Trade’s May 2026 market analysis places Serbia among the most significant electricity trading developments in the Western Balkans. On the SEEPEX exchange, the average day-ahead price increased to €96.63/MWh. The level was up 5.59% versus April and 8.50% compared with May 2025. Trading activity and volumes were highlighted alongside the price movement .
SEEPEX reported 566.3 GWh of traded volume during May. This represented a 16.99% increase month on month and a 13.31% rise year on year. The data pointed to improving market liquidity during the period. The same month also coincided with Serbia moving into a net electricity importer position .
May 2026 physical balance: higher demand, weaker hydropower
Serbia’s physical market balance changed materially in May. Net electricity imports reached 422.97 GWh as electricity demand increased and domestic hydropower production weakened. Power consumption rose by 4.26% from April, described as one of the strongest monthly demand increases across Southeast Europe. Hydropower generation fell by 31.68%, reducing operational flexibility .
Renewable generation increased by 2.90% over the same period. The increase was not sufficient to offset the decline in hydro output alongside stronger electricity demand. As a result, import dependence increased during a month when hydropower contributed less to supply .
Generation mix and implications for wholesale pricing dynamics
Serbia’s generation mix in May remained dominated by coal and lignite. Coal and lignite accounted for 56.99% of total generation, while hydropower contributed 33.49%. Renewables made up 8.26% of generation, and natural gas represented 0.43%. The mix differentiates Serbia from systems where gas-fired generation plays a larger role in setting wholesale prices .
Coal provided a stable baseload supply during the month, while lower hydropower output constrained system flexibility. With reduced hydro availability, Serbia relied more on imports during periods of higher demand. This interaction between generation composition and import needs was reflected in the May net import figure .
Cross-border flows: imports from multiple neighbours, exports limited to Croatia
Cross-border electricity trade expanded across the month as Serbia adjusted its supply-demand balance through interconnections. Imports came from Hungary, Bulgaria, North Macedonia, Kosovo, Montenegro and Bosnia and Herzegovina. Exports were directed only to Croatia during May .
The range of import origins reflected growing integration with neighbouring electricity markets in Southeast Europe. It also pointed to the role of cross-border transmission capacity and congestion management for day-ahead trading outcomes . Efficient day-ahead trading was cited as a factor supporting balancing between domestic supply and demand.
