Electricity.Trade’s May 2026 analysis points to Serbia as one of the most important trading stories in the Western Balkans. SEEPEX prices rose to a monthly average of €96.63/MWh, up 5.59% from April and 8.50% year on year. The price increase was moderate compared with Romania and Croatia, but the deeper signal came from volumes and flows. SEEPEX traded 566.3 GWh, up 16.99% month on month and 13.31% year on year, suggesting that Serbian day-ahead liquidity strengthened at the same time as the system moved into a net import position.
The shift in Serbia’s physical balance was decisive. In May, Serbia recorded 422.97 GWh of net electricity imports as demand increased and hydro availability weakened. Serbian demand rose by 4.26% month on month, one of the strongest increases in the region. At the same time, hydropower generation fell by 31.68%, reducing the domestic flexibility that normally helps smooth daily price formation. Renewable generation increased only 2.90%, too little to offset the hydro decline and higher demand.
Serbia’s generation mix remained heavily shaped by coal. Coal/lignite accounted for 56.99% of the May electricity mix, hydro for 33.49%, renewables for 8.26%, and gas for only 0.43%. That structure gives Serbia a different trading profile from markets where gas is the main marginal fuel. Coal provides baseload depth, but lower hydro output reduces the system’s ability to respond flexibly to daily and hourly price signals. In May, this made imports more important and exposed Serbia more directly to neighbouring price levels.
Serbia imported electricity from Hungary, Bulgaria, North Macedonia, Kosovo, Montenegro and Bosnia and Herzegovina, while exporting only to Croatia. The geographical spread of imports matters. It shows that Serbia was not relying on one corridor, but drawing from multiple neighbouring systems to balance domestic needs. For traders, this increases the importance of cross-border nominations, auction rights, congestion monitoring and day-ahead positioning around SEEPEX.
The May signal is that Serbia is becoming more liquid, more regionally connected and more exposed to weather-driven generation swings. SEEPEX volume growth is positive for market maturity, but import dependence during a month of weak hydro raises the price sensitivity of industrial consumers and suppliers. Electricity.Trade should treat Serbia’s May market as a case study in the transition from administratively influenced domestic balancing toward a more visible regional trading environment, where hydro variation, coal availability, imports and exchange liquidity increasingly determine price formation.
