Electricity.Trade’s May 2026 trading analysis shows Türkiye moving on a completely different trajectory from the rest of Southeast Europe. While most SEE markets recorded higher wholesale power prices, Türkiye’s monthly spot average fell to just €11.17/MWh, down 39.49% from April and 80.18% lower than in May 2025. Against Italy at €119.35/MWh, Romania at €109.56/MWh, Hungary at €106.51/MWh and Bulgaria at €101.07/MWh, Türkiye became the most striking spread story in the region.
The size of the gap is extraordinary. Türkiye traded almost €90/MWh below Bulgaria, around €78/MWh below Greece and more than €108/MWh below Italy. For traders, this kind of spread would normally suggest a major arbitrage signal. Yet in power markets, the ability to monetise that difference depends on interconnection rights, available transmission capacity, market coupling arrangements and balancing constraints. Türkiye’s low-price environment created a visible economic signal, but the physical and regulatory architecture limits how much of that value can flow into neighbouring European markets.
The generation mix explains part of the divergence. Türkiye’s May power mix was dominated by 50.31% hydro, followed by 19.68% renewables, 18.41% coal/lignite, 11.35% gas and 0.25% oil. At the same time, demand fell by 5.09% month on month, while renewable generation declined by 6.70%. The key factor was not renewable growth, but the combination of lower demand and very large hydro availability. Hydro-heavy systems can suppress spot prices when reservoir conditions and dispatch incentives align, especially where domestic market rules differ from EU-linked power exchanges.
Türkiye still registered net electricity exports of 255.00 GWh in May. It exported 26.87 GWh to Greece, 44.01 GWh to Bulgaria and 184.12 GWh to Georgia. But those volumes were too small to narrow the regional price gap materially. This is the central trading point: Türkiye was cheap enough to reshape the regional price map, but not sufficiently integrated to reset SEE prices.
For Electricity.Trade, the May Türkiye signal should be read as a market-access story rather than a simple low-price story. The price collapse highlights the value of interconnection, cross-border capacity and regional market integration. Without those tools, extreme spreads remain visible but only partly tradable. Türkiye’s May position showed what happens when a hydro-rich, lower-demand system clears far below EU-linked neighbours: the economic signal is powerful, but the physical market remains fragmented.
