The power trading landscape in Hungary and the broader Southeast Europe (SEE) region saw notable price declines during Week 15 of 2026, primarily influenced by a substantial drop in demand and a remarkable surge in solar energy production. The HUPX baseload price fell to €92.19/MWh, marking a €21.0/MWh decrease from the previous week. Concurrently, the HU-DE price spread contracted to €19.71/MWh from €36.64/MWh, reflecting changing market dynamics. This period also saw CEGH gas prices easing to €49.28/MWh, while EUA prices remained stable at €72.10/t, alleviating some thermal cost pressures that had previously supported regional pricing.
The decline in average load to 29,084 MW represented a significant reduction of 4,260 MW week-on-week, the lowest level recorded since September. Contributing factors included Orthodox Easter holidays, milder weather conditions, and increased prosumer activity. In stark contrast to this demand slump, solar peak output soared to 8,542 MW—up by 2,030 MW from the prior week and exceeding last year’s figures by 1,951 MW. This imbalance led to significant intraday pricing challenges, with HUPX recording 22 negative-price hours—double that of the previous week—indicating that midday oversupply has transitioned into a structural characteristic of the spring shoulder season.
Wind generation faced a contrasting trend as it plummeted to 1,903 MW—down 1,704 MW from the previous week—making it the second-lowest output of the year and approximately 23% below seasonal norms. Typically, such a decrease would support higher evening prices; however, this week’s overwhelming solar generation and collapsing demand negated that effect. The market’s ability to absorb reduced wind generation without experiencing a corresponding price spike suggests that weak wind conditions will not automatically lead to bullish market moves unless accompanied by stronger demand or reduced solar output.
Thermal generation also experienced a sharp decline: coal output decreased to 4,375 MW (down 1,378 MW), while gas generation fell to 3,220 MW (down 839 MW). These reductions were linked directly to diminished consumption levels and ongoing maintenance outages which have weakened unit revenues. Despite lower gas prices contributing positively to clean spark economics, overall power prices fell more rapidly than gas prices did. As a result, thermal plants are increasingly becoming residual units rather than price-setters during daylight hours when solar generation is high and demand remains low.
Cross-border trading spreads showed less volatility this week as well. Although HUPX maintained a position above Germany for 127 hours, substantial narrowing occurred in hourly spreads during solar production hours. Notably, the average HU-DE spread in critical hours fell from €59/MWh to €34/MWh over the course of the week. Additionally, both AT-DE and PL-DE spreads dropped significantly; however, grid conditions remained strained due to maintenance issues rather than an improvement in transmission capacity.
On a regional scale, the export-import balance improved but did not return to normal levels; SEE remained a net importer at -1,172 MW but showed an improvement of 744 MW compared to the previous week. Bulgaria and Romania reported substantial gains while Serbia’s position was notably weaker—its net import levels were described as the lowest since December 2024. Hungary’s situation improved slightly along with Bulgaria’s best performance since July last year; however, local markets continued to exhibit structural tightness where hydro or coal outputs underperformed.
Interestingly, imports from CORE nations declined during solar hours despite total flows remaining at their second-highest levels since January. Flows toward Ukraine and Moldova increased but were still relatively low compared to recent trends—an aspect likely impacting congestion costs and activating more expensive regional units during peak evening hours.
Average baseload prices across countries reflected this downward trend: Romania at €88.01/MWh; Serbia at €91.35/MWh; Bulgaria at €86.02/MWh; Greece at €84.69/MWh; and Italy North at €120.56/MWh—with Hungary remaining above most neighboring markets yet still lagging behind Italy North by €28.4/MWh.
This week’s developments indicate a bifurcated market structure: midday pricing is increasingly influenced by solar oversupply and suppressed visible demand alongside negative-price risks; conversely, evening pricing remains buoyed by weaker wind conditions and limited flexible thermal margins amidst constrained cross-zonal transfers. Such dynamics are reshaping trading strategies toward focusing on solar-hour weaknesses versus evening firmness rather than adopting straightforward bullish or bearish weekly perspectives.
Overall, Week 15 marked a bearish phase for baseload prices—not due to an overall easing of system pressures but rather because demand decreased more rapidly than supply tightened amidst robust solar production compensating for wind losses during critical pricing periods.
