The energy landscape in Southeast Europe (SEE) has witnessed a notable uptick in spot prices as the week commenced, reflecting a shift towards tighter thermal-driven pricing conditions. Major exchanges reported significant increases, with HUPX day-ahead prices climbing to €138.68/MWh, Romania’s OPCOM reaching €139.51/MWh, and Bulgaria’s IBEX rising to €136.34/MWh. In contrast, Greece’s prices remained relatively lower at €97.12/MWh, buoyed by enhanced solar generation and less regional pressure.
This price surge can be attributed to multiple factors including decreased wind generation, diminished hydro contributions, ongoing nuclear maintenance, and escalating evening peak pricing. Total electricity consumption in the region rose to 28.1 GW while generation fell to 21.7 GW, resulting in a net import position of approximately 2.16 GW. Day-on-day hydro output decreased by 615 MW, while wind generation plummeted by 725 MW—critical drivers behind the tightening balance in supply-demand dynamics.
The generation mix highlights the vulnerability of the SEE market during periods of renewable volatility; hydro accounted for only 22% of the overall mix with wind contributing a mere 3%. Consequently, coal and gas-fired plants resumed their roles in marginal pricing as coal output increased by 156 MW and gas-fired generation remained steady at 3.49 GW. Although solar capacity improved by 331 MW, it was insufficient to mitigate the pronounced evening scarcity premiums that emerged across various regional markets.
Hourly trading patterns reaffirmed the resurgence of thermal pricing pressures, with HUPX evening hours trading near or above €200/MWh; Romania’s OPCOM even peaked at €212.2/MWh while Bulgaria’s maximum hourly price reached approximately €177.6/MWh. The disparity between midday and evening prices underscores the growing intraday volatility resulting from renewable energy fluctuations without adequate storage solutions.
Further analysis of import structures reveals a renewed dependence on north-to-south electricity flows, with imports from Austria and Slovakia into Hungary and the broader SEE region reaching around 1.9 GW. Italy continues to play a role in absorbing regional exports while Greece remains a net importer at about 1.29 GW.
Several supply-side developments have reinforced bullish market sentiment across the region. Bulgaria’s Kozloduy nuclear facility has commenced preparations for scheduled maintenance on Unit 5 starting May 9 and expected to last until mid-June, removing a crucial baseload asset during an already volatile period for renewables. This maintenance includes refueling efforts utilizing Westinghouse fuel assemblies as Bulgaria seeks to diversify its nuclear fuel sources away from Russia.
Compounding these challenges, Romania has extended the outage for Cernavoda Unit 2 due to transformer-related issues that led to automatic disconnection earlier this month; this is further exacerbated by Unit 1 also entering planned maintenance which raises concerns regarding Romania’s export capabilities moving forward.
Slovenia’s Krško nuclear plant has reported reduced effective export capacity stemming from low river levels affecting cooling systems; despite operating at full capacity, environmental constraints have limited exports to around 690 MW from normal levels exceeding 700 MW—a situation indicative of broader climate-related risks impacting Europe’s thermal and nuclear fleets.
Weather forecasts suggest persistent pressures may continue into midweek with declining temperatures anticipated across Slovenia, Croatia, Bulgaria, and Romania post-May 11, potentially driving up thermal demand amid uncertain wind recovery.
In forward markets, Hungarian Week-20 power forwards have risen to €126/MWh while Week-21 contracts are at €124.5/MWh. Carbon allowances have also strengthened significantly with EUA Dec-26 contracts trading near €80/t—further intensifying economic pressures on coal and lignite production throughout SEE.
Despite these challenges in balancing supply-demand dynamics, renewable investment momentum remains robust across the region. North Macedonia has confirmed an increase in solar capacity reaching 962.6 MW—now surpassing hydropower as its second-largest generation technology—with renewables comprising approximately 46.4% of its national electricity mix.
Additionally, Montenegro has initiated trial operations at the Gvozd wind farm near Nikšić—an investment worth €82 million projected to generate around 150 GWh annually for approximately 25,000 households. This project underscores ongoing efforts toward renewable infrastructure development within the Western Balkans.
However, current market trends indicate that merely expanding renewables will not suffice to stabilize SEE electricity markets effectively; increasing price spreads between midday lows and evening peaks alongside persistent import dependencies highlight an urgent need for utility-scale battery storage solutions and enhancements in cross-border interconnections for effective balancing mechanisms.
If substantial flexibility infrastructure is not developed promptly, there is a risk that SEE markets may enter a phase characterized by heightened volatility where high renewable penetration coexists with aggressive intraday price spikes—especially during periods marked by weak wind output and constrained hydro resources.
