The final week of June left Southeast Europe entering July with elevated electricity prices, tighter system margins and a more fragile gas-power balance. Week 26 already showed the shift: demand rose 12.7% to 18.41 TWh, thermal generation increased 24.7%, hydro declined 2.8%, and most regional markets moved above €100/MWh on weekly average. Early July day-ahead prices then pointed to continued upward pressure, ranging from €169.11/MWh in Greece to €235.17/MWh in Hungary on 1 July.
That starting point matters. July is not beginning from a relaxed market position. It is beginning after a heatwave week in which Hungary, Romania, Italy and Croatia all moved into high-price territory. Serbia also tightened and shifted from net exporter to marginal net importer. Greece remained relatively cheaper, but even there demand and imports increased. Bulgaria retained an export role, but its hydro output weakened sharply. The region enters July with several pressure points already active.
The first risk is temperature. Cooling demand is now the dominant short-term driver. A further heatwave can lift consumption quickly, especially in Italy, Greece, Croatia, Serbia, Hungary and Romania. Week 26 showed that demand can rise by double digits in a single week, forcing rapid dispatch changes and lifting peak prices.
The second risk is generation mix. Thermal plants carried much of the balancing burden in late June, with gas and coal/lignite both rising strongly. That makes July power prices sensitive to plant availability, fuel costs, carbon prices and operational constraints. Hydro availability will also matter. A weaker hydro position in Bulgaria or Türkiye can tighten the regional stack, while stronger hydro in Serbia, Croatia or Greece can soften local pressure.
The third risk is gas. TTF eased slightly during Week 26, but storage remained below seasonal norms at 48.3% on 27 June. That means the gas market still has a structural risk premium. A hotter July would increase gas burn for power generation and make winter storage refill more difficult. Power prices can rise even if gas prices are stable, simply because more gas-fired generation is needed.
The fourth risk is hourly shape. The evening ramp is now the key commercial exposure. Solar generation can help during the day, but it cannot cover the post-sunset demand peak without storage. Traders and industrial buyers should expect the highest risk to remain concentrated in evening hours, particularly when wind output is weak or interconnector capacity is constrained.
July therefore opens as a market for active risk management. Flat procurement, passive spot exposure and simple baseload assumptions are poorly suited to the current conditions. The value is moving into flexible generation, storage, demand response, cross-border optimisation and verified renewable procurement. The summer market has started with a clear signal: SEE electricity prices are being shaped by heat, flexibility scarcity and the cost of keeping the system balanced hour by hour.
Elevated by Virtu.Energy
