Italy posted the highest weekly day-ahead power price in Southeast Europe during Week 23. The Italian weekly day-ahead average increased by 3.7% to €128.09/MWh. The figure was above neighbouring SEE markets and also far higher than Türkiye’s structurally low price level.
Across the region, the spread against Italy remained wide. Greece averaged €89.25/MWh, Serbia €99.63/MWh, Croatia €99.29/MWh, Bulgaria €100.83/MWh, Romania €102.23/MWh and Hungary €103.15/MWh. On that basis, Italy traded at a premium of nearly €39/MWh to Greece and about €27–29/MWh to several markets clustered around €100/MWh.
Italy’s premium and regional import flows
The price gap coincided with changes in cross-border volumes into Italy. Italy reduced net imports by 14.1% over the week while still remaining the largest net importer in the SEE region. Net imports totaled 950.91 GWh, according to the Week 23 data referenced in the market coverage.
This combination of lower imports but the highest price level points to continued market tightness in Italy relative to surrounding systems. Where interconnector capacity allows, Italy remains a destination for regional power flows. The premium therefore continues to influence how market participants assess export and import opportunities across neighbouring zones.
Export optionality and limits on price convergence
For generators in Balkan markets, the Italy premium can support export optionality when physical conditions permit. Assets including hydro, lignite, gas, wind and solar located in neighbouring countries can capture value if export routes are available and congestion does not prevent flows. Traders also use the Italy-to-Balkans spread for scheduling, hedging, transmission rights and congestion management.
However, the spread is not always fully tradable across borders. Interconnector constraints, scheduled flow limits, internal bottlenecks and market coupling conditions affect how much convergence can occur between prices in different bidding zones. The Week 23 flow map shows active regional exchanges, but persistent differences indicate that physical and commercial constraints remain relevant.
Fuel-linked pricing and implications for regional markets
Italy’s pricing is also linked to fuel risk through gas-linked marginal pricing mechanics. The market remains exposed even during weeks when gas-fired generation falls. With TTF prices near €49/MWh, Italian power carries a fuel-risk premium that can widen versus markets with stronger hydro or lignite output or cheaper domestic supply.
The higher Italian price level affects multiple neighbouring markets through cross-border trading incentives and consumer exposure. For Greece, Croatia, Slovenia and the Western Balkans, Italy’s high-price signal supports flexible generation economics and cross-border trading activity while also exposing import-dependent consumers to regional price volatility. The same spread that benefits exporters can raise costs for industrial offtakers if domestic markets move upward toward higher levels.
Interconnector investment signals from persistent spreads
The persistence of price spreads also feeds into the investment case for interconnectors and grid reinforcement. Where spreads remain present, transmission capacity has economic value for market participants seeking to move power between lower-cost zones and higher-priced areas. Projects aimed at increasing transfer capability between Balkan supply regions and higher-priced Italian or Central European markets are highlighted as potential enablers of trading gains.
Such developments are also associated with improved security of supply and reduced price fragmentation within the region’s interconnected systems. Week 23 data continued to show Italy functioning as a high-price sink for Southeast Europe, keeping export optionality active for Balkan power markets where routing is available. For investors, the same dataset reinforces that generation value in SEE is tied not only to output but also to location, interconnector access and the ability to monetise spreads.
