Day-ahead electricity prices fell across most Southeast European markets and Hungary on Wednesday, with Serbia recording the steepest decline, while Italy remained close to €225/MWh. The divergence widened regional price spreads despite broadly stable electricity demand.
Serbia’s SEEPEX baseload price fell by €69/MWh, or nearly 39%, to €109.33/MWh, the lowest level among the monitored markets. Hungary declined by €15.90 to €160.65/MWh, while Romania settled at €162.70/MWh, Croatia at €162.74/MWh and Slovenia at €167.29/MWh. Bulgaria recorded €153.31/MWh and Greece €140.54/MWh.
Prices also weakened across the southern Balkans. Albania dropped by €32.10 to €150.20/MWh, Montenegro declined €21.10 to €171.27/MWh, while North Macedonia eased to €153.63/MWh. Serbia consequently traded at a €51.32/MWh discount to HUPX, while Montenegro maintained a €10.62/MWh premium over Hungary. Italy remained around €64/MWh above HUPX, preserving a strong westward price gradient.
Serbia also recorded an unusually wide intraday price range, with SEEPEX falling to just €5/MWh around hour 11 before surging to €246/MWh in the evening. The average peak-period price stood at €102.10/MWh, below the €116.50/MWh off-peak average, highlighting the growing impact of daytime renewable generation on conventional peak pricing.
Similar price compression was observed elsewhere in the region. Greece recorded an average peak price of €89.40/MWh, compared with €191.60/MWh during off-peak hours, while Hungary’s peak average stood at €123.80/MWh against €197.50/MWh off peak. Regional solar generation was forecast at around 7.52 GW, approximately 1.67 GW higher than the previous day, while wind generation remained broadly stable at 2.09 GW.
The decline in spot prices occurred despite largely unchanged electricity demand. Combined consumption in Hungary and Southeast Europe was forecast at 31.62 GW, effectively flat day on day. Net regional imports, however, decreased to approximately 479 MW from 970 MW, while inflows from the Austria-Slovakia core fell to 1.59 GW from 1.96 GW.
Serbia’s sharp price discount emerged even though the country remained a net importer. Average consumption increased marginally to 3.55 GW, while domestic generation rose to 3.01 GW from 2.81 GW, reducing the net import requirement to approximately 540 MW from 730 MW. Higher domestic availability combined with accessible imports appears to have eased the Serbian power balance and triggered a much deeper spot correction than in neighbouring markets.
Despite the lower price, Serbia remained integrated with significant regional electricity flows, importing on a baseload basis from Bulgaria, North Macedonia and Romania, while exporting toward Montenegro and, during certain periods, Hungary. The price discount therefore appears to reflect short-term congestion, bidding behaviour and hourly supply conditions rather than a straightforward regional surplus.
Bulgaria continued to act as one of the region’s stronger supply centres, with average exports of around 1.72 GW, compared with domestic consumption of 3.88 GW and generation of 5.60 GW. Across the wider region, approximately 1.48 GW continued to flow toward Italy, where significantly higher prices maintained the incentive for westbound electricity exports.
The sharp spot-market correction was not mirrored across the forward complex. Hungarian week-38 power declined by €1 to €180/MWh, while week-39 contracts increased by €4.50 to €192.50/MWh. October power eased to €187/MWh, while the calendar contract rose to €146.50/MWh. Austrian CEGH gas gained €2.30 to €77.38/MWh, while EU carbon allowances increased €0.70 to €85.42/t.
Wednesday’s market movements point to short-term spot fragmentation rather than a broad bearish repricing of Southeast European electricity. Serbia moved to an exceptional discount, while Italy maintained its substantial premium and Hungarian forward prices continued to signal higher power costs later in September.
For traders, the widening gap between very low midday prices and expensive evening hours is becoming increasingly important alongside traditional cross-border price spreads. Serbia’s €5–€246/MWh intraday range, combined with Italian prices near €225/MWh, underlines a market increasingly shaped by hourly renewable generation, cross-border transmission capacity and the ability to shift electricity between periods and bidding zones.
