Southeast Europe’s power system continues to rely on conventional generation when electricity demand increases and wind output weakens. Week 23 showed thermal output rising across the region as coal, lignite and gas-fired plants covered a tighter balance. Regional thermal generation increased 24.5% week on week to 4.22 TWh.
Week 23 thermal output driven by Türkiye
The increase was led by Türkiye, where thermal generation more than doubled. Output rose 103.2% to 2.03 TWh. Turkish coal generation increased 55.7%, while gas-fired production jumped 278.1%.
The change in Türkiye followed a 31.0% surge in electricity demand. Even with stronger solar and hydro output, the system required a larger conventional response to meet load.
Changes across Greece, Serbia, Romania and Italy
Greece also raised thermal generation during the same period, with lignite output up 66.2%. Serbia recorded higher thermal production as well. Romania increased thermal output by 5.2%, supported by stronger gas-fired generation.
Italy moved in the opposite direction, with thermal generation down 16.7%. The decline was mainly linked to lower gas-fired production, although Italy remained the region’s highest-priced market at €128.09/MWh.
Thermal role in balancing during tight conditions
Renewable growth has not removed thermal generation from the SEE price stack; it has altered when thermal plants are needed. Coal, lignite and gas increasingly provide balancing during evening ramps, weak-wind periods, hydro shortfalls and high-demand weeks.
This shifts the operational focus of thermal assets toward system security and marginal pricing rather than steady baseload volume.
Fuel and carbon exposure tied to market tightness
Gas prices near €50/MWh keep gas-fired power expensive in the market. Lignite and coal remain important in several SEE systems, alongside carbon and policy risks associated with those fuels.
Thermal units can generate value during tight hours, while their longer-term role is exposed to decarbonisation, emissions costs, plant age and regulatory pressure.
Transition risk as supply security versus decarbonisation
The transition risk is described as two-sided: retiring thermal capacity too quickly can create security-of-supply problems and price spikes. Keeping it too long can increase carbon exposure, reduce investment in flexibility and weaken alignment with EU climate policy.
Week 23 also reflected how solar and wind growth coexists with periods when conventional plants still carry the system. Wind fell 15.5%
