Gross scheduled electricity exchanges between the Western Balkans Six and neighbouring EU markets fell 14.3% year on year in the third quarter of 2026, while day-ahead trading on regional exchanges increased. The Energy Community Secretariat’s assessment found that volumes on SEEPEX, MEPX, ALPEX and MEMO rose 26.7%, pointing to a widening gap between regional market activity and cross-border flows.
Across January–September 2026, gross scheduled exchanges were 17.8% lower than in the corresponding period of 2025. They recovered 8.6% from the previous quarter in July–September, but remained below their year-earlier level, according to the assessment.
Day-ahead trading volumes across the four organised electricity markets reached approximately 2.97 TWh in the third quarter, up 26.7% year on year. The Secretariat said the contrast may indicate growing internal liquidity as access to neighbouring European wholesale prices becomes more complicated, but cautioned that trading changes cannot be attributed exclusively to CBAM.
Flows and carbon costs shape trade
Export movements differed by corridor. Scheduled electricity exports from Serbia to Hungary declined 21.6% despite a wider wholesale price spread between the two markets, while exports from Montenegro to Italy increased approximately 80%. The assessment said hydrology, trading positions, transmission capacity and contractual arrangements also affect commercial flows.
Price differences between the region and the EU widened across the periods measured. For eight Western Balkan–EU electricity price pairs, absolute hourly price differences exceeded €20/MWh in 53.9% of third-quarter hours, compared with 21.7% a year earlier, the Secretariat reported.
The European Commission set the third-quarter 2026 CBAM certificate price at €82.32 per tonne of CO₂, up from €75.28 in the second quarter. The assessment noted that actual electricity import costs depend on the applicable emissions methodology, eligible deductions and other regulatory conditions.
Traders therefore need to compare EU wholesale revenues with procurement costs, transmission charges, losses, balancing exposure and CBAM-related liabilities, according to the Secretariat. It said generators may face a growing distinction between electricity that can be sold domestically or regionally and power that can economically reach EU customers.
A potential structural discount could emerge in exporting markets where generation remains carbon-intensive or low-carbon production cannot meet requirements for recognition of actual emissions. The Secretariat said wholesale prices, transmission access and verified carbon characteristics are increasingly interconnected commercial variables.
For Serbia, Montenegro and the wider Western Balkans, the challenge identified in the assessment is preserving efficient electricity trade while adapting to carbon rules that can affect whether cross-border transactions are profitable. The reported trading patterns also reflect generation, demand, hydrology and available interconnection capacity.
