The second quarter of 2026 brought a partial easing of the disruption that followed the start of the definitive phase of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, but the Western Balkan electricity market did not return to its previous trading structure. Price spreads narrowed, correlations with EU benchmarks recovered and the region returned to its usual seasonal position as a net importer. Yet commercial exchange with the EU remained materially below 2025, while electricity increasingly moved through a smaller number of northbound and south-east European corridors.
The Energy Community Secretariat’s Q2 assessment covers Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia, together with neighbouring markets in Bulgaria, Croatia, Greece, Hungary, Italy and Romania. It examines generation, day-ahead prices, cross-border spreads, capacity-auction values, power-exchange liquidity and scheduled and physical flows. The Secretariat cautions that the evidence remains preliminary because CBAM began at the same time as exceptionally favourable hydrology, making it difficult to separate carbon-related effects from seasonal market conditions.
The central Q2 movement was a return from the region’s exceptional first-quarter net-export position of around 1,247 GWh to net imports of approximately 1,048 GWh. This was close to the normal seasonal balance recorded a year earlier. Imports from the EU nevertheless fell 14% year on year to 4,271 GWh, while exports declined 16% to 3,223 GWh. Gross scheduled trade across Western Balkan–EU borders dropped from 8,828 GWh to 7,494 GWh, a fall of about 15%. Across the first half, the contraction reached 19%.
This decline occurred despite almost complete allocation of the transmission capacity offered on the principal export corridors. The market was therefore not facing a simple shortage of available rights. Traders bought capacity, but scheduled less energy across it. That distinction matters because it points towards uncertainty over carbon costs, eligibility for actual emission values, PPA structures and future regulatory amendments rather than a purely physical transmission constraint.
At the same time, domestic exchange liquidity improved. Day-ahead traded volumes across the four Western Balkan power exchanges rose 19% to 2.70 TWh. ALPEX increased by 52%, MEPX by 49%, MEMO by 31% and SEEPEXby 7%. Regional market activity was therefore not disappearing. It was shifting inward, with more power traded on local exchanges and less transferred commercially across the EU border.
The geographical pattern also changed. Scheduled exports from Serbia to Hungary increased 111%, while electricity within the Western Balkans increasingly moved northwards through Serbia. Greece became a stronger exporter towards Bulgaria, North Macedonia and Albania, supported by growing solar and wind production. Montenegro’s exports to Italy recovered, while several older transit corridors through North Macedonia, Bulgaria and Croatia remained weak.
CBAM did not create every one of these movements, but it is becoming part of the economics that determine which routes remain commercially viable. National default emission factors create a large cost wedge for carbon-intensive systems, while Albania’s zero factor preserves competitiveness at much narrower price spreads. Traders are increasingly evaluating not only the visible day-ahead differential but also carbon-certificate exposure, hourly delivery structure, physical PPA traceability and the prospect of regulatory reform.
The first half of 2026 therefore marks the start of a more segmented regional electricity market. Domestic exchanges are becoming more liquid, but cross-border integration with the EU is weaker. Serbia is gaining value as a northern trading and transit node, Greece is strengthening as a regional supply centre, and renewable generators are discovering that access to EU prices depends as much on verification and contractual architecture as on physical generation.
