Electricity.Trade’s May 2026 monthly analysis shows one of the most important structural trends in the Southeast European power market: renewable growth is no longer automatically enough to suppress wholesale prices. Across most of the region, variable renewable generation increased strongly, but market prices still rose. That combination matters because it challenges the simple assumption that more wind and solar will always translate into lower monthly clearing prices.
The renewable data was broadly positive. Bulgaria recorded the strongest increase in variable renewable output at 34.19% month on month, followed by Romania at 26.57%, Greece at 15.88%, Hungary at 9.56%, Italy at 9.22%, Serbia at 2.90% and Croatia at 0.13%. Türkiye was the only analysed market where renewable generation declined, falling 6.70%. On paper, this should have created downward pressure across the region. In practice, most European SEE markets became more expensive.
Romania’s average spot price rose 14.66% to €109.56/MWh. Croatia increased 14.55% to €103.58/MWh. Bulgaria rose 11.08% to €101.07/MWh. Hungary increased 10.31% to €106.51/MWh, while Serbia moved 5.59% higher to €96.63/MWh. Even Greece, the lowest-priced interconnected European SEE market, edged up to €88.98/MWh. Italy remained the highest-priced market at €119.35/MWh, almost unchanged from April but still heavily above year-earlier levels.
The explanation lies in the interaction between renewables, hydro, gas and imports. Renewables can reduce prices in certain hours, especially during strong solar production, but they do not remove the need for dispatchable capacity in evening and low-output periods. In May, hydro performance was mixed, gas prices remained high enough to influence marginal pricing, and several markets relied heavily on imports. Croatia’s net imports represented 43.78% of its electricity mix, Hungary’s almost 29.97%, and Italy’s 17.97%.
For Electricity.Trade, the May trend is a reminder that renewable penetration must be analysed alongside system flexibility. Wind and solar reduce fuel burn and reshape hourly curves, but they do not automatically lower monthly averages when interconnectors are congested, hydro is weak or gas still sets marginal prices. The next phase of the SEE market will be determined less by renewable capacity alone and more by the ability of batteries, hydro, demand response, interconnectors and commercial PPAs to convert renewable output into reliable price reduction.
