The 30 June 2026 daily data show a sharp scarcity-driven repricing across the northern and central SEE corridor, with HUPX at €290.71/MWh, up €68/MWh day on day, and Romania’s OPCOM at €293.44/MWh, up €69.9/MWh, making Romania the highest-priced market in the monitored set. Serbia also moved aggressively, with SEEPEX rising to €250.98/MWh, up €101/MWh, while Croatia and Slovenia cleared close to Hungary at €263.03/MWh and €262.05/MWh respectively. The market split was severe, with deep regional divergence: Albania stayed at only €116.33/MWh, Greece at €137.72/MWh, Bulgaria at €148.44/MWh, North Macedonia at €148.05/MWh, and Montenegro at €157.14/MWh. That left Hungary trading more than €142/MWh above Bulgaria and more than €174/MWh above Albania.
The core signal is not only higher demand, but system congestion and structural evening scarcity. Regional HU+SEE consumption increased to 35,949 MW, up 1,175 MW from the previous day, while the system’s net import position deepened to 2,859 MW. Imports from the Core direction, mainly AT+SK into HU+SI, reached 2,946 MW, confirming that Hungary and the northern SEE belt were heavily dependent on Central European supply. At the same time, the HU-DE spot spread widened to €103.38/MWh, highlighting a sharp regional imbalance between Hungary and Western Europe.
The hourly shape is especially important because the stress was concentrated in the evening ramp and post-solar gap. Hungary peaked at €923.10/MWh at H21, Romania at €954.60/MWh, Croatia at €946.60/MWh, Slovenia at €1,041.50/MWh, and Serbia at €800/MWh. In several markets, off-peak averages exceeded peak averages, showing how scarcity is structurally displaced outside standard peak definitions. The system reflects a classic summer ramp problem where solar supports midday balance, but evening hours become exposed to limited imports, thermal constraints, and congestion.
Country balances show clearly where structural shortages are emerging. Hungary was the largest importer at 1,841 MW, with consumption at 5,819 MW and domestic generation at only 3,977 MW. Romania remained structurally short despite strong hydro, with imports of 1,380 MW. Croatia also showed heavy dependence on imports at 1,336 MW. Serbia imported 697 MW, with consumption at 4,046 MW, confirming a region-wide reliance on cross-border balancing rather than internal sufficiency.
The opposite side of the system was Greece and Bulgaria, which acted as regional supply and transit hubs. Greece exported 1,620 MW while maintaining strong generation across gas, solar, and wind, keeping prices relatively lower at €137.72/MWh despite tight regional conditions. Bulgaria exported 801 MW at €148.44/MWh and simultaneously facilitated large northbound flows toward Romania. This confirms Bulgaria’s role as a critical transmission corridor linking southern generation with northern scarcity.
For Serbia, the trading implication is a compressed arbitrage position between southern supply and northern scarcity premiums. SEEPEX at €250.98/MWh sat well above southern markets but below Hungary, Romania, Croatia, and Slovenia. Serbia’s net import position of 697 MW and spike toward €800/MWh highlight exposure to hour-specific imbalance rather than average generation adequacy. Cross-border flows show fragmented directional patterns, reinforcing that Serbia is operating in a volatile corridor market structure, not a balanced one.
Forward markets confirmed that the Hungarian risk premium is becoming a persistent summer structural feature rather than a one-day spike. HU Week 29 rose to €144/MWh, HU July 2026 to €135/MWh, and spreads against Germany widened significantly. However, longer-dated contracts such as Cal-27 remained relatively stable at €111/MWh, indicating that the market is pricing this as a short-term congestion and adequacy issue rather than a full structural repricing of baseload expectations.
Fuel and carbon signals did not fully explain the move. Gas prices in CEGH and Greece remained elevated around €43–44/MWh, but EUA prices fell to €78.78/t. This divergence confirms that the main driver was physical power scarcity and transmission constraints, not carbon cost pressure. The system stress was therefore driven by grid limitations, ramping shortages, and cross-border bottlenecks, rather than fuel fundamentals.
The next trading signal depends on whether cooling weather materialises as forecast. Temperatures across SEE+HU are expected to fall from around 29°C to 26°C and then near 22°C, which should reduce cooling demand and ease pressure on evening ramps. However, if structural import dependence persists in Hungary, Romania, Croatia, and Serbia, the market may continue to experience high volatility in the evening scarcity window, even under lower average temperature conditions.
