Brent crude oil futures remained broadly stable during the first week of July, following the decline observed in the previous week as geopolitical concerns in the Middle East eased. Front-month Brent futures traded on the ICE market reached their weekly peak settlement price of $73.15/bbl on Monday, 29 June, before declining to a weekly low of $71.57/bbl on Wednesday, 1 July. According to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis, this marked the lowest Brent settlement level since 27 February.
Oil prices recovered slightly toward the end of the week, with the Brent front-month contract settling at $72.12/bbl on Friday, 3 July. This level was almost unchanged compared with the previous Friday, increasing by only 0.2%, reflecting a relatively stable crude oil market environment.
The stability of Brent futures prices was supported by the gradual normalisation of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz after the tensions seen in previous weeks. In addition, continued progress in negotiations between the United States and Iran helped reduce expectations of prolonged geopolitical disruption, lowering the risk premium previously incorporated into oil prices.
In contrast, European natural gas prices moved higher during the first week of July. Front-month TTF gas futures traded on the ICE market increased steadily from €42.57/MWh on Monday, 29 June, reaching a weekly maximum of €45.22/MWh on Friday, 3 July. According to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, the final settlement price was 11% higher than the previous Friday’s level.
The rise in TTF gas futures was mainly driven by the need to rebuild European gas storage levels ahead of the winter season. Additional support came from stronger gas demand for electricity generation in some European markets, where high temperatures and lower solar photovoltaic output increased reliance on gas-fired power plants.
European carbon allowance prices also recovered during the week, with December 2026 EUA futures traded on the EEX market reaching their lowest settlement price of €78.79/t on Monday, 29 June. After briefly moving above €80/t at the end of June, prices remained near €79.50/t during the first two trading sessions of July.
By Friday, 3 July, EUA futures climbed to their weekly high of €80.59/t, representing a 0.4% increase compared with the previous Friday. The recovery in carbon prices followed the upward movement in TTF gas futures, highlighting the renewed correlation between European gas and emissions markets.
Overall, early July energy commodity markets reflected a divergence between stable oil prices and stronger European gas and carbon markets. Lower geopolitical risk kept crude oil prices contained, while seasonal storage requirements and power sector demand supported higher natural gas prices, with EUA prices following the movement of the gas market, AleaSoft reports.
