In early March, significant fluctuations were observed in the energy futures markets, particularly for Brent oil and TTF gas. On the ICE market, Brent oil futures recorded a minimum settlement price of $77.74 per barrel on March 2. This figure marked a notable increase as prices surged throughout the week, culminating in a maximum settlement price of $92.69 per barrel by March 6. This upward movement represents a substantial 28% rise compared to the previous week and is the highest price point since September 30, 2023. The surge has been largely attributed to escalating concerns regarding supply disruptions stemming from ongoing conflicts in the Middle East.
On the TTF gas futures market, Front Month contracts experienced a similar trajectory. The weekly low was noted at €44.51 per megawatt-hour on March 2, which was already 39% higher than the prior week’s closing figures. Prices continued their ascent, reaching a peak of €54.29 per megawatt-hour on March 3—the highest level recorded since February 13, 2025. Although there was a minor decline on March 4, TTF gas prices rebounded, closing at €53.39 per megawatt-hour on March 6, reflecting an impressive increase of 67% from the previous Friday. Contributing factors included disruptions at Qatari LNG facilities and geopolitical tensions that have led to threats from Russia concerning potential supply limitations to Europe.
Meanwhile, CO₂ emission allowance futures for December 2026 on the EEX market also demonstrated notable volatility. The maximum settlement price reached €73.33 per ton on March 3 before experiencing a slight decrease over subsequent sessions, remaining below €71 per ton in the last three trading days of the week. The weekly minimum was recorded at €70.36 per ton on March 5 before slightly recovering to €70.59 per ton by Friday’s close. This movement indicated a modest increase of 0.4% compared to the previous week’s figures.
The interplay of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East with prevailing supply concerns and diminishing storage levels across Europe has been pivotal in driving these sharp movements across oil, gas, and CO₂ futures during this period. As market participants continue to monitor these developments closely, the implications for energy policy and pricing strategies remain significant for stakeholders within the sector.
