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Electricity Prices Surge in Southeast Europe Amid Geopolitical Tensions

The electricity market in Southeast Europe (SEE) experienced a significant rebound during Week 10, with most countries reporting substantial week-on-week price increases. The escalation of the USA-Iran conflict has been a key driver, leading to higher gas and oil prices, disrupted liquefied natural gas (LNG) flows, and increased geopolitical risks affecting energy markets across Europe. In this context, the Greek market saw an impressive price rise of 70.9%, reaching an average of €92.41/MWh. Italy maintained the highest price level in the region at €141.28/MWh, reflecting a 32.5% increase.

Other notable increases were seen in Bulgaria and Romania, with respective price hikes of 50.0% and 51.8%, bringing their prices to €104.22/MWh and €106.34/MWh. Hungary and Croatia followed with more moderate increases of 33.9% and 35.3%. Serbia recorded the most dramatic week-on-week rise at nearly 96.6%, climbing to €92.05/MWh, while Türkiye remained the lowest-priced market at €37.83/MWh despite an increase of 82.4%.

In Week 10 of 2026, most SEE countries registered electricity prices above €100/MWh, with Türkiye being an exception alongside Greece and Serbia. Prices ranged from €38/MWh to €141/MWh across the region, highlighting significant disparities in pricing structures influenced by regional dynamics. The highest daily prices occurred on March 4th, while the lowest were noted on March 8th.

Demand for electricity in the SEE region declined to a total of 16,975 GWh during Week 10, marking a reduction of 2.6% compared to the previous week’s consumption of 17,430 GWh. This decline was widespread across monitored markets, particularly pronounced in Bulgaria (-9.7%) and Romania (-8.3%). Serbia’s demand fell by -5.5%, while Hungary and Greece experienced smaller reductions of -3.5% and -2.8%, respectively.

Variable renewable generation also saw a notable decline across SEE during this period, dropping by -16.8% week-on-week to total 2,536 GWh from 3,049 GWh previously recorded. This decrease was largely attributed to weaker wind generation which fell by -31.6%, whereas solar output remained stable with a slight increase of 0.5%. Türkiye faced the largest absolute decline in wind production at -33.7%, significantly impacting overall renewable energy source output despite a strong increase in solar generation.

Hydropower generation exhibited a slight decrease as well in Week 10, totaling 3,683 GWh—a reduction of -3.4% from the previous week’s figures driven mainly by decreases in Greece (-22.3%) and Bulgaria (-33.1%). In contrast, Türkiye’s hydropower output remained relatively stable while Croatia saw an impressive surge from a low base.

Thermal power generation rose across SEE regions to reach 6,611 GWh—up by 6.6% week-on-week—primarily due to increased gas-fired generation which climbed by 13.9%. Greece reported substantial growth in thermal generation (+45.7%), aided by a surge in gas utilization; Italy also saw a notable increase as gas-fired generation expanded further.

Cross-border electricity flows showed a contraction in net imports within the SEE region during Week 10, declining by -16.8% to reach 1,291 GWh overall. Despite a reduction of -9.1%, Italy remained the largest net importer while Hungary and Serbia also cut their net imports by approximately -30%. Notably, Croatia significantly increased its imports by nearly +490%, signaling shifts in regional trade dynamics.

The current trends highlight ongoing volatility within SEE’s electricity markets driven by geopolitical factors alongside shifts in demand and generation capacities across various energy sources.

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