Southeast European day-ahead electricity prices fell sharply for Wednesday delivery, as stronger wind and solar generation, improved domestic output and lower import requirements eased the supply pressure that had pushed regional markets well above Western European benchmarks a day earlier.
The biggest correction came in Serbia, where the SEEPEX baseload price dropped by €105.7/MWh to €211.42/MWh, making Serbia the cheapest market in the region and bringing it almost level with Germany at €211.94/MWh. Hungary’s HUPX declined by €74.1/MWh to €252.42/MWh, while Romania fell to €246.11/MWh and Bulgaria to €245.14/MWh.
The move represents a rapid reversal from Tuesday’s tight market conditions. Regional electricity consumption is forecast at 31,756 MW, an increase of 527 MW day on day, yet total net imports are expected to fall by 152 MW to 3,479 MW. The key factor is improved renewable availability, with solar generation forecast to rise by 388 MW to 5,552 MW and wind output increasing by 510 MW to 1,772 MW.
The additional supply was enough to push wholesale prices lower despite higher demand, underlining the growing importance of marginal generation availability in determining prices across Southeast Europe.
Serbia recorded the most pronounced improvement. National consumption is expected to increase to 3,956 MW from 3,841 MW, while generation rises much more significantly, reaching 3,403 MW compared with 2,862 MW previously. As a result, Serbia’s average net import requirement falls to around 553 MW, down from 979 MW.
The roughly 426 MW reduction in import dependence is particularly significant in a market where imported electricity can set the marginal price during tight periods. SEEPEX consequently moved from €317.1/MWh on Tuesday to a position roughly €41/MWh below Hungary on Wednesday.
Serbia’s hourly market also reflected the improved balance. The maximum price fell from €450/MWh to €317.6/MWh, while the minimum reached €130/MWh around H14. Hungary experienced a similar solar-driven midday decline, with prices ranging from €152.4/MWh to €333.1/MWh.
The convergence between Serbia and Germany was particularly notable. German baseload increased by €16.3/MWh to €211.94/MWh, while the sharp decline in Hungary compressed the Hungary-Germany spread to €40.49/MWh, compared with around €131/MWh a day earlier.
The development suggests that Tuesday’s exceptionally high Central and Southeast European prices were largely the result of a short-term regional supply and balancing squeeze, rather than a broad-based increase across European power markets.
Romania, Bulgaria and Croatia also followed the downward trend. Romanian OPCOM fell by €61.1/MWh to €246.11/MWh, while Bulgarian IBEX declined €54.8/MWh to €245.14/MWh. Croatia dropped €32.7/MWh to €238.59/MWh, Slovenia fell to €235.76/MWh and Montenegro declined €40.5/MWh to €254.27/MWh.
Italy settled at €252.40/MWh, almost exactly matching Hungary and effectively eliminating the previous Hungary-Italy baseload price gap. As a result, most Central and Southeast European markets were concentrated within a relatively narrow range of around €236-€254/MWh.
Not all markets followed the regional correction, however. North Macedonia remained at €267.45/MWh, while Albania moved in the opposite direction, rising by €30.6/MWh to €285.56/MWh, the highest baseload price among the markets covered.
Albania’s divergence was reflected in its physical balance. Consumption increased to 876 MW from 839 MW, while generation fell to 511 MW from 545 MW. The country’s average import requirement consequently increased to approximately 366 MW from 294 MW.
Albania was therefore trading roughly €33/MWh above Hungary and €74/MWh above Serbia, demonstrating that local generation conditions and cross-border constraints can still cause individual Southeast European markets to diverge sharply from the regional trend.
Greece also experienced a significant change in its hourly price structure. HENEX baseload declined only modestly, by €7.3/MWh to €240.56/MWh, but the minimum hourly price increased to €156.6/MWh, compared with €32.9/MWh on Tuesday. At the same time, the maximum price dropped from €396.1/MWh to €312/MWh.
The narrower hourly range points to a less extreme Greek balancing profile, with fewer very cheap midday periods but also a substantially lower scarcity premium during the most expensive hours. This shift is particularly relevant for renewable producers and battery-storage operators, whose economics depend heavily on the spread between low midday prices and evening peaks.
Despite the sharp spot-market correction, the forward electricity market remains relatively expensive. Hungary’s Week 44 contract remained at €267/MWh, down €3, while Week 45 increased by €7 to €259/MWh. November declined €6 to €244/MWh, while the Calendar 2026 contract fell €4 to €166/MWh.
Fuel markets provided some additional bearish pressure. November gas declined by €3.5/MWh to €86.50/MWh, while Q1 2027 gas fell to €85.50/MWh. November coal dropped €4 to €150.5/tonne, although EUA carbon allowances edged €0.3 higher to €85.65/tonne.
For traders, the divergence between the sharp spot correction and comparatively resilient forward prices is significant. Wednesday’s decline does not necessarily signal the beginning of a sustained low-price cycle. Instead, the forward market continues to reflect expectations of tight conditions during parts of the late-autumn period.
The Oct. 21 session therefore appears to represent a rapid normalization following Tuesday’s regional scarcity episode. Serbia benefited most from stronger domestic generation and lower import dependence, while the sharp narrowing of the Hungary-Germany spread showed how quickly regional premiums can disappear when supply conditions improve.
Albania’s opposite move provides a reminder that Southeast Europe remains highly fragmented, with individual markets capable of moving independently when domestic generation, demand or interconnection capacity changes.
The key question for the coming sessions will be whether stronger renewable output and improved domestic generation can be sustained. If they persist, Serbian and Central Balkan prices could remain closer to Western European benchmarks. However, a renewed decline in wind generation, weaker thermal availability or tighter cross-border capacity could quickly restore the regional scarcity premium that drove Tuesday’s price surge.
