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EPBiH coal shortages raise risk of further electricity tariff pressure in 2026-2027

EPBiH, the state-owned power utility in Bosnia and Herzegovina, faces renewed electricity-price pressure as coal supply problems contribute to losses. The company could see pressure for another electricity-price increase by late 2026 or early 2027, according to the conditions affecting its operations. Weak coal production, lower generation and higher wholesale procurement costs are cited as factors weighing on the utility.

No formal tariff request has been announced, but EPBiH’s deteriorating operating position is making another adjustment increasingly possible. EPBiH reported a €26.7 million net loss in 2025 even though it generated almost €750 million in revenue. The financial results highlight the impact of cost and supply issues on the utility’s performance.

Coal delivery shortfalls constrain generation and export volumes

The main structural issue remains coal supply for thermal generation. Mines within the EPBiH group delivered around 1.01 million tonnes less coal than contracted, leaving thermal plants without sufficient fuel. This shortfall is linked to an estimated 1,000 GWh of electricity production that could not be supported.

Weak hydrological conditions compounded the situation by reducing available generation from hydro assets. EPBiH was forced to buy more electricity on wholesale markets while cutting the volume available for export. The shift affects a business model in which export earnings historically helped support relatively low regulated domestic tariffs.

Additional Kakanj coal requirement and ongoing market balancing

The difficulties continued into 2026, with authorities instructing EPBiH to secure an additional 400,000 tonnes of coal for the Kakanj power plant. Company management also reported production shortfalls at affiliated mines during the same period. These developments keep pressure on fuel availability for generation.

To manage its position, EPBiH has increasingly relied on market purchases and trading. The utility has participated on Serbia’s SEEPEX exchange since August 2025 and is also developing balancing activities . This approach is used to address gaps created by weaker domestic output.

Wholesale procurement costs remain hard to quantify

The precise financial cost of electricity procurement remains difficult to assess because individual transactions are subject to confidentiality provisions used in European energy-trading contracts . Without a sustained recovery in mine output and domestic generation, wholesale purchases are expected to remain a significant financial burden. That would leave limited room for keeping retail prices unchanged indefinitely.

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