Dutch TTF November futures settled at €87.32/MWh, about 1% higher than the previous day and more than double their level at the start of the year. Prices have increased sharply since late September as competition for LNG cargoes has intensified. The move comes as global LNG supplies remain constrained while European inventories are lower ahead of the winter heating season.
LNG shipping disruption tightens availability for European and Asian buyers
A key pressure point is disruption to LNG shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which has reportedly removed around 20% of global LNG deliveries from the market. With reduced cargo availability, competition between European and Asian buyers has intensified. This shift in supply availability is occurring alongside tighter global LNG conditions.
Storage levels entering winter remain below last year and the five-year average
Europe is entering winter with less gas in storage than a year earlier. EU facilities were 74.1% full on Oct. 15, compared with 83.04% at the same point in 2025. Inventories are expected to reach only 75-78% by Nov. 1, about ten percentage points below the five-year average.
The storage outlook also extends beyond the current season. A heavy drawdown could require another difficult and expensive storage-refilling campaign in 2027. Under relatively normal winter conditions, inventories in northwestern Europe could fall to around 20% by early April.
Winter demand coverage depends on pipelines and LNG imports, including policy changes from 2027
Storage withdrawals typically cover only 25-30% of European winter demand, with the remainder reliant on continued pipeline supplies and LNG imports. Norway and the United States remain key external suppliers supporting that balance through the season.
The market also faces a structural change from January 2027, when the EU plans to impose a complete ban on Russian LNG imports. As colder weather begins to increase heating demand, lower inventories and tighter LNG availability are reinforcing each other. That combination raises the risk that elevated European gas prices persist beyond peak winter and continue affecting electricity-generation costs across Central and Southeast Europe.
