The cleanest market contradiction in Week 25 was the split between gas and electricity. TTF futures averaged €41.76/MWh, down 14.8% from the previous week, yet most SEE electricity markets moved higher. Serbia rose 9.6%, Hungary 10.6%, Croatia 11.2%, Romania 7.7% and Italy 3.7%. The week made clear that lower gas prices do not automatically translate into lower power prices when the electricity system is physically tighter.
This distinction matters because the regional market is increasingly driven by hourly balancing conditions. Gas is still important, especially when gas-fired generation sets marginal prices, but it is not the only variable. In Week 25, demand increased by 3.1% to 16.34 TWh, hydro declined by 4.7%, wind fell by 4.4%, and thermal generation increased by 19.4%. The system needed more dispatchable generation even though the fuel input became cheaper.
Gas-fired output rose sharply by 32.3%, adding 771 GWh compared with the previous week. This means gas plants were running more, not less. The fall in gas prices helped contain the marginal cost of generation, but the need for more thermal dispatch, especially during evening hours, kept power prices elevated.
This is a critical point for industrial buyers. A procurement strategy based only on gas-price expectations is incomplete. Buyers also need to track hydro conditions, renewable profiles, temperature-driven demand, interconnector flows and evening price risk. A falling TTF curve can coexist with rising power prices when system flexibility becomes scarce.
For power generators, the week improved the commercial case for flexible thermal assets. Gas plants gained dispatch volume precisely because the market needed their flexibility. The value was not simply fuel spread; it was availability during tight hours.
For policymakers, the message is that gas supply security and power affordability are related but not identical. LNG availability, storage levels and lower hub prices can reduce one source of risk, but they do not solve grid congestion, ramping needs, renewable intermittency or hydro variability.
Week 25 therefore marked a useful reminder for SEE markets: fuel costs explain part of the power price, but system shape increasingly explains the rest.
