At the beginning of February, European gas prices have seen a notable decline, with Dutch TTF futures dropping into the low €30s. This shift has been attributed to milder weather forecasts and a decrease in near-term heating demand, which has alleviated some of the upward pressure that had been observed in late January. The market’s sensitivity to immediate weather changes and demand projections remains evident as these factors continue to influence price dynamics.
During Week 06 (February 2-8, 2026), TTF futures for March 2026 delivery averaged €33.947/MWh, reflecting a significant week-on-week decline of 10.6%. Prices initially opened at €33.95/MWh but faced downward pressure, particularly on February 3 when they fell to €32.86/MWh. However, volatility characterized the week as prices rebounded on February 6, reaching €35.69/MWh due to renewed concerns over tightening supply balances and increased gas-to-power demand.
Despite this price retreat, storage levels across the European Union remain historically low. As of early February, EU inventories were approximately 37-41% full, starkly below last year’s levels of around 52% for the same timeframe. Specific national figures indicate that Germany’s storage was about 30.2% full, France around 29%, and the Netherlands close to 23.5%. Projections suggest that EU stocks could decline to approximately 26% by the end of March, highlighting a precarious supply situation.
The influx of liquefied natural gas (LNG) is playing a crucial role in stabilizing Europe’s gas supply landscape. The United States has emerged as Europe’s dominant LNG supplier, providing over half of the region’s imports by late 2025 and maintaining strong delivery levels into early 2026. This consistent supply has alleviated immediate concerns regarding availability and has positioned LNG as a flexible resource capable of mitigating low storage levels.
Additionally, commercial activities surrounding long-term LNG supply agreements are intensifying. Atlantic Sea LNG Trade is currently negotiating a contract to secure up to 15 billion cubic meters (bcm) per year of U.S. LNG for two decades aimed at serving southern Europe. Established in 2025 through a partnership between Greece’s DEPA Commercial and Aktor Group, this venture focuses on importing LNG via key terminals such as Revithoussa and Alexandroupolis while redistributing it throughout Southeast Europe via the Vertical Gas Corridor.
The urgency of securing reliable long-term supplies is underscored by CEO Alexandros Exarchou’s statements advocating for proactive measures to avoid future shortages and market volatility post-2030 for countries that do not adequately diversify their energy portfolios.
Atlantic Sea LNG Trade is also engaged in discussions with various U.S. suppliers while simultaneously negotiating with potential buyers along the Vertical Gas Corridor, which includes nations such as Albania, North Macedonia, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Moldova, Austria, and possibly Ukraine. The company is working towards establishing a diversified supply portfolio that reflects varying demand profiles in northern versus southern markets.
A recent milestone for Atlantic Sea LNG Trade includes its first agreement with Naftogaz of Ukraine for a cargo scheduled for March 2026 delivery at Revithoussa, subsequently transported through Bulgaria and Romania. Further negotiations are anticipated to conclude during an upcoming high-level meeting in Washington on February 24.
This meeting will build upon prior agreements such as the significant 20-year contract established with Venture Global in late 2025, which marked Greece’s initial long-term partnership with a U.S. LNG exporter and reinforced its strategic position as a regional gas hub.
