During the third week of May, average electricity prices in the main European markets showed varied trends compared to the previous week. The Spanish MIBEL market and the French EPEX SPOT market recorded the highest percentage increases, with prices rising by 47 percent and 140 percent, respectively. Prices also increased in the UK’s N2EX market and Belgium’s EPEX SPOT market, but more moderately, by 1.7 percent and 5.2 percent. Meanwhile, prices declined in the rest of the major European electricity markets. The largest drop was seen in the Nordic Nord Pool market, where prices fell by 66 percent. Other markets tracked by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting saw declines ranging from 1.5 percent in Italy’s IPEX market to 25 percent in the Portuguese MIBEL market.
During the week of May 12, weekly average prices exceeded €60 per megawatt-hour in most major markets. Exceptions included Spain, the Nordic countries, France, and Portugal, where averages were €18.19/MWh, €21.65/MWh, €23.10/MWh, and €25.57/MWh, respectively. In contrast, the British and Italian markets posted the highest averages, at €92.22/MWh and €95.80/MWh. Prices in the remaining markets ranged between €64.46/MWh in Belgium and €68.61/MWh in Germany.
Between May 12 and 19, the Portuguese government increased electricity import capacity from Spain. The limit was set at 1000 megawatts from 09:00 to 19:00 CET and 2200 megawatts during the other hours. This measure allowed the market coupling between Spain and Portugal to improve to 57 percent, up from 23 percent the previous week, although still below the levels above 95 percent seen before the April 28 blackout in the Iberian Peninsula.
Daily prices in the Spanish and Nordic markets fell below €10/MWh in some sessions during the third week of May. The Nordic market recorded the lowest daily average, €4.60/MWh on May 14, its lowest level since March 23.
Most European electricity markets registered negative hourly prices at some point during the week, with the exception of the British and Italian markets. Still, the Italian market saw three hours of zero pricing on the afternoon of Sunday, May 18. This marked the second occurrence of zero hourly prices in Italy this year, a rare event not seen since April 2020.
Despite the increases in gas and CO₂ emission allowance prices, the rise in wind energy production helped bring down electricity prices in markets such as Germany, Portugal, and Italy. Conversely, reduced wind output in Spain and France contributed to the sharp price increases in those countries. In France, the increase in electricity demand also played a role.
Looking ahead, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting projects that electricity prices will rise in most major European markets during the fourth week of May. However, prices are expected to decline in the MIBEL market, driven by higher wind energy production across the Iberian Peninsula and increased solar generation in Spain, AleaSoft reports.
