During the third week of February, electricity prices across major European markets exhibited a fluctuating trend, with a slight rebound early in the week followed by a notable decline. The overall effect led to reduced weekly average prices in most regions, with the Iberian Peninsula standing out as an anomaly; Spain’s prices surged by 230% and Portugal’s by an extraordinary 581%. In contrast, Italy experienced the smallest drop at 9.8%, while the Nordic and French markets saw significant decreases of 26% and 28%, respectively. Other markets also witnessed declines, ranging from 16% in the United Kingdom to 22% in Belgium.
For the week ending February 16, average prices remained below €90/MWh for most European markets. Notably, the Nordic market averaged €93.02/MWh and Italy recorded €104.82/MWh. The lowest weekly averages were observed in Portugal (€14.86/MWh), Spain (€20.57/MWh), and France (€28.32/MWh). Other analyzed markets showed variations, with Belgium at €72.82/MWh and Germany at €86.13/MWh.
On February 16, Portugal registered the week’s lowest daily price at €3.50/MWh, while Spain also recorded a price below €5/MWh on that day. February 22 marked a significant low for France at €9.56/MWh, its lowest since October 6, 2025. Italy fell to €86.34/MWh on the same day, its lowest since October 27, 2025; Belgium reached €43.92/MWh, marking its lowest price since November 2, 2025. Additionally, Germany, Great Britain, and the Netherlands posted their lowest prices since January 2 on February 22 at €53.86/MWh, €51.84/MWh, and €54.37/MWh respectively.
Despite these overall declines in weekly averages, certain markets like Germany, Italy, and the Nordics saw daily prices above €100/MWh during at least one session of that week. Italy frequently surpassed €105/MWh across multiple sessions while the Nordic market peaked with a daily average of €128.91/MWh on February 18.
The downward trend in power prices was largely influenced by lower gas prices and CO₂ emission allowances coupled with increased solar generation and diminished demand across several markets during this period. Additionally, enhanced wind production in Germany, France, and Italy contributed to this downward pressure on pricing. Conversely, reduced wind output specifically in the Iberian Peninsula resulted in significantly elevated prices for Spain and Portugal.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting has projected that electricity prices are likely to rise again during the fourth week of February due to anticipated lower wind generation levels across Europe. However, potential declines in demand may counterbalance this increase in Germany and Belgium. Furthermore, an expected surge in solar output within Germany could further temper any upward price movements.
