Brent crude oil futures for the front month on the ICE market rose sharply during the third week of July, reaching their highest level since 12 June amid escalating geopolitical tensions and concerns over energy supply disruptions.
The contract settled at a weekly low of $83.30/bbl on Monday, 13 July, before rising during the following sessions. Brent reached a weekly settlement high of $88.10/bbl on Friday, 17 July.
According to data analysed by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, the Friday settlement was 16% above the previous Friday’s level, reflecting a sharp increase in oil-market risk premiums.
The rise in Brent prices was driven by escalating hostilities between the United States and Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important energy shipping routes.
TTF front-month gas futures traded on ICE also increased throughout the third week of July. The contract settled at a weekly low of €51.36/MWh on Monday, 13 July, before rising in every subsequent session.
TTF futures reached a weekly settlement high of €57.44/MWh on Friday, 17 July, the highest level since 21 March. The settlement was 18% above the previous Friday’s level, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.
Concerns over liquefied natural gas supply from the Persian Gulf, amid rising tensions between the United States and Iran, provided the main upward catalyst for European gas prices during the week.
EU carbon allowance futures for the December 2026 reference contract traded on the EEX also recorded a volatile week. Prices reached a weekly settlement high of €81.39/t on Tuesday, 14 July, before declining during the final sessions.
The contract fell to a weekly low of €79.12/t on Friday, 17 July. Despite the weekly decline, the settlement remained only 0.1% below the previous Friday’s level, according to data analysed by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.
