Southeast European day-ahead electricity prices remained elevated on Sept. 25, as a sharp decline in wind generation tightened regional power balances and increased reliance on imports. Most SEE markets cleared above €200/MWh, while the premium of Hungary’s HUPX market over Germany narrowed significantly.
Albania recorded the highest price at €223.92/MWh, followed by Romania at €219.85/MWh and Hungary at €219.62/MWh. Bulgaria settled at €216.50/MWh, Greece at €213.62/MWh, North Macedonia at €211.32/MWh, Serbia at €207.90/MWh and Croatia at €205.84/MWh. Montenegro remained below the regional group at €190.98/MWh.
Price movements were mixed across the region. HUPX declined by €19.70/MWh, while Romania fell by €12.70/MWh. Greece recorded the strongest increase, surging by €38/MWh, while Serbia rose by €20.20/MWh, North Macedonia by €15/MWh and Albania by €13/MWh.
The main market driver was a deterioration in the regional generation balance. Electricity consumption across Hungary and SEE increased to around 29.94 GW, while generation fell by more than 1.2 GW compared with the previous day. Net imports consequently increased by 886 MW to 3.57 GW, with imports from the Central European core rising by more than 500 MW to 2.73 GW.
Wind generation accounted for most of the tightening. Regional wind output plunged by almost 1.6 GW to 2.14 GW, representing a decline of more than 40% in a single session. Solar generation also decreased to around 5.27 GW, further reducing renewable output available to the regional market.
Dispatchable generation increased but was unable to fully compensate for the decline in renewables. Gas-fired generation rose by around 330 MW to 4.43 GW, while hydropower output increased by approximately 210 MW to 3.72 GW. Coal generation changed little, while nuclear output remained broadly stable.
The tighter regional balance came despite a substantial narrowing of the Hungary-Germany price differential. German day-ahead electricity prices increased to around €176.63/MWh, while HUPX fell to €219.62/MWh. Hungary’s premium therefore narrowed to about €43/MWh, from more than €100/MWh a day earlier.
The smaller price differential reduced the immediate incentive for west-to-east electricity trading, but did not eliminate the region’s physical need for imports. Hungary remained structurally short, with consumption of around 4.74 GW compared with domestic generation of approximately 3.39 GW, resulting in net imports of about 1.35 GW. The country continued to function both as an importing market and an important transit point for regional electricity flows.
Romania recorded one of the largest national deficits. Consumption reached around 5.70 GW, while generation fell to 4.13 GW, increasing net imports to approximately 1.57 GW, compared with just under 1 GW a day earlier.
The Romanian deficit kept OPCOM closely aligned with HUPX, with only around €0.23/MWh separating the two markets. This reflected the increasingly interconnected nature of regional power trading as countries relied more heavily on cross-border supplies to compensate for weaker domestic generation.
Greece also shifted sharply toward imports. The system moved from an average net export position of around 452 MW to net imports of approximately 228 MW, while generation fell by almost 800 MW to about 5.14 GW. The tighter balance coincided with the strongest day-on-day price increase in the region, pushing HENEX to €213.62/MWh.
Serbia remained a net importer but improved its physical balance. Consumption increased to around 3.48 GW, while generation rose to approximately 2.95 GW, narrowing average net imports to 531 MW from 628 MW the previous day.
Despite the improved physical balance, SEEPEX increased to €207.90/MWh, around €11.70/MWh below HUPX. Serbia therefore remained cheaper than Hungary even as its domestic day-ahead clearing price increased.
Bulgaria remained an important exporting system, but its average exports fell sharply to around 706 MW from more than 1.5 GW a day earlier. Higher domestic consumption and lower generation reduced the Bulgarian surplus, limiting another readily available source of electricity for neighbouring markets.
The Sept. 25 session highlighted the growing importance of renewable generation volatility in shaping short-term electricity prices across Southeast Europe. A decline of almost 1.6 GW in wind output was sufficient to materially increase cross-border import requirements despite stronger gas-fired and hydro generation.
With Romania and Hungary carrying significant structural deficits and Greece returning to a net import position, regional prices remain sensitive to further periods of weak wind generation. The narrower Hungary-Germany spread reduced one source of market pressure, but the underlying physical electricity balance across Southeast Europe remained tight.
