SEEPEX cleared at a baseload average of €97.53/MWh for delivery on 13 July, up 34.3% from Sunday’s €72.62/MWh. The peak-load average was €78.83/MWh, while traded day-ahead volume reached 15,746.3 MWh. Average Serbian demand was indicated at approximately 3,395 MW, compared with 3,188 MW on Sunday.
The hourly profile was more important than the baseload number. SEEPEX fell to €29/MWh at 09:00 and remained near €50–52/MWh through much of the central solar window. Prices then rose to €129.95/MWh at 17:00, €174/MWh at 19:00 and a daily maximum of €189.84/MWh at 20:00.
The resulting minimum-to-maximum spread was approximately €160.84/MWh. A battery capturing only half of that theoretical spread would still have access to a gross daily arbitrage envelope of roughly €80/MWh, before round-trip losses, degradation, market fees, balancing exposure and dispatch constraints.
Serbia remained substantially cheaper than the coupled Central European markets. The SEEPEX discount was approximately €28.37/MWh to Hungary, €28.48/MWh to Slovenia, €22.19/MWh to Croatia and €16.93/MWh to Romania. The discount indicates that Serbia was not the regional marginal price-setting zone for most of the day, although evening prices still approached levels associated with gas, imports and constrained flexible capacity.
No negative SEEPEX interval occurred in the published hourly profile. The €29/MWh morning low nevertheless confirms that solar cannibalisation is no longer limited to weekends or exceptionally weak-demand days. Unshaped Serbian solar PPAs remain exposed to lower capture prices than baseload contracts, while wind retains a materially different generation profile and should not be valued using solar capture assumptions.
A consistent market-wide intraday volume-weighted price was not publicly available at the morning cut-off. The day-ahead curve therefore remains the clearest executable signal. Intraday volatility is likely to be concentrated around the afternoon cloud and temperature forecast, wind deviations and the steep 17:00–21:00 net-load ramp.
