More than 25% of electricity used in Serbia in October came from imports, with a market value of around €100 million, or roughly €3 million a day, energy expert Željko Marković said. The purchases add to costs for EPS, Serbia’s electricity company, amid weak hydropower production.
Serbia entered the heating season with maintenance largely completed but remained materially dependent on imported power. Weak hydropower output, rather than a single thermal-unit outage, was identified as the immediate reason for the import need.
Returning coal units from overhaul would not remove the exposure if poor hydrology cuts low-variable-cost hydropower production. In that case, EPS could still need to buy electricity during expensive regional hours. High European gas prices add pressure because gas-fired generation often sets peak power prices across interconnected markets.
Existing storage at Bajina Bašta has reversible hydropower capacity a little above 600 MW. The facility can shift energy, but its capacity is insufficient to offset prolonged supply deficits.
Proposed pumped-storage projects at Bistrica and Đerdap 3 are presented as potential protection against volatile import prices and intermittent renewable output, rather than simply as new generation projects. Serbia’s import exposure is both financial and a security-of-supply risk: the system can remain technically supplied while imports drain value during the most expensive hours.
The strategic challenge is whether Serbia can expand flexibility faster than the gap created by ageing thermal assets, variable hydropower and rising renewable penetration. The import situation strengthens the investment case for pumped hydro, battery energy storage systems, demand response and stronger cross-border hedging, alongside new generation.
