EU member states imported 9.89 million tonnes of LNG from Russia’s Yamal project between January and June 2026, according to the reported figures. The volume was up 18% compared with the same period in 2025. The data implies first-half imports of roughly 8.38 million tonnes a year earlier, with an additional 1.51 million tonnes entering the European market in the latest six-month period.
First-half volumes concentrated in France, Belgium and Spain
Purchases were concentrated among three EU countries. France imported approximately 3.6 million tonnes, Belgium 2.9 million tonnes, and Spain 2.7 million tonnes. Together, the three markets accounted for around 9.2 million tonnes, or almost 93% of the reported EU total.
European buyers spent an estimated €6 billion on Yamal LNG during the period. That implies an average expenditure of approximately €607 per tonne. The estimate includes differences in contractual terms, delivery timing and cargo valuation.
Long-term contracting and terminal access support continued flows
The increase is linked to the commercial role of European terminals for Yamal LNG deliveries. Buyers retain long-term contractual obligations for the project’s supply. LNG infrastructure in France, Belgium and Spain provides access to large storage facilities, liquid gas markets and onward transmission capacity.
Under current restrictions, Russian LNG can continue to enter the EU via existing long-term contracts, while new short-term agreements are not permitted. Customs authorities are expected to verify that imported cargoes meet these conditions.
EU rules tighten from 1 January 2027 for LNG contracts and pipeline gas
The regulatory framework becomes more restrictive from 1 January 2027, when the EU plans to prohibit imports under existing long-term LNG contracts as well. Russian pipeline gas is also expected to face a later prohibition. These changes are expected to increase replacement pressure on European buyers for both contracted LNG volumes and remaining pipeline supply.
The first-half record may therefore align with a period of accelerated lifting before the restrictions take effect. Buyers have incentives to secure volumes while contracts remain legally executable, particularly where alternative procurement could involve higher spot prices, greater shipping costs or less flexible delivery terms.
Replacement demand extends beyond Russian suppliers into regional markets
The shift in supply sourcing is expected to affect more than Russian exporters alone. Replacement demand would need to be met through additional Atlantic and Middle Eastern LNG, pipeline imports from Norway, North Africa and Azerbaijan, storage optimisation and lower consumption.
Southeast Europe is expected to be affected through competition for cargoes delivered to Greece, Turkey, Croatia and the wider Mediterranean market. European gas security is therefore moving into a transition where infrastructure availability is no longer the main constraint. The key issue becomes replacing commercially embedded supply contracts without creating a new price premium for European industry and power generation.
