In the second week of January 2026, TTF gas prices in Europe demonstrated a degree of stability after experiencing modest intraday fluctuations. The highest settlement price was recorded on January 7 at approximately €28.778/MWh, with the weekly average settling at €28.06/MWh, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.7% compared to the previous week. Futures for February 2026 on the ICE market showed variability, ranging from a decline of 3.7% to an increase of 2.5%.
The week began with a notable drop in prices on January 5, where they fell by 5.5% to a low of €27.399/MWh, marking a decrease of 3.2% from the previous session on December 29. However, a recovery followed as prices rose throughout the week, culminating in the peak settlement midweek.
Early January brought unusually cold temperatures to Northwest and Central Europe, which significantly heightened gas demand for heating purposes. This surge in demand led to increased withdrawals from storage facilities, with EU gas inventories reported at approximately 54.9%, notably lower than the previous year’s level of 66.9% during the same period.
Geopolitical factors further complicated the market dynamics, particularly following reports that the United States is contemplating military and cyber actions against Iran, raising fears over potential disruptions to global LNG supplies. Europe’s increasing dependence on LNG imports—especially after a significant reduction in Russian pipeline deliveries—has made it more vulnerable to such external shocks.
As of mid-January, one-month forward contracts for TTF were trading at €32.320/MWh. Additionally, data revealed that Russia’s Yamal LNG terminal exported LNG worth €7.2 billion ($8.4 billion) to Europe in 2025. This report coincided with EU agreements made in December 2025 to phase out Russian gas imports by January 1, 2028, with LNG imports set to be banned starting in early 2027.
Despite impending bans on Russian gas imports, the EU continues to be the largest importer of Russian LNG, with Yamal LNG accounting for nearly 15% of total EU imports according to recent findings by German NGO Urgewald and data from Kpler. France emerged as the primary recipient of these shipments, receiving a total of 6.3 million tonnes across 87 tanker deliveries—representing approximately 41.7% of all Yamal LNG shipments directed toward Europe.
The operations surrounding Yamal LNG are heavily reliant on EU ports and specialized ice-breaking Arc7 LNG tankers designed for Arctic conditions; lack of access to these ports could necessitate longer shipping routes to Asia. In contrast, Belgium received about 4.2 million tonnes through deliveries from 58 ships in 2025 while China received around 3.6 million tonnes via 51 ships during the same year.
The logistics for transporting Yamal LNG are primarily managed by two key players: Seapeak and Dynagas. Seapeak transported approximately 37.3% of Yamal’s output while Dynagas handled around 34.3%. Out of a total fleet of specialized Arc7 ice-breaking tankers—14 vessels—11 are owned by these two companies, ensuring efficient operations and quick turnaround times necessary for meeting European demand.
