Southeast European day-ahead electricity prices fell sharply on Wednesday, September 16, as stronger solar generation and lower regional demand eased the tight market conditions seen earlier in the week. The correction was particularly pronounced in Greece, Bulgaria and the western Balkans, while Italy moved in the opposite direction and maintained a substantial premium over neighbouring markets.
Hungary’s HUPX baseload contract settled at €168.02/MWh, down €21.90/MWh, or around 11.5%, from Tuesday. Romanian prices remained closely aligned, with OPCOM falling €20.40/MWh to €169.18/MWh, just €1.16/MWh above Hungary.
The largest declines were recorded further south. Greece’s HENEX price dropped €46.90/MWh to €123.37/MWh, the lowest national average in the region, while Bulgaria’s IBEX contract fell €35.80/MWh to €140.29/MWh. Serbia declined €30.80/MWh to €151.88/MWh, while North Macedonia fell €31.30/MWh to €153.95/MWh.
Croatia and Slovenia continued to trade close to the Hungarian benchmark. CROPEX settled at €168.92/MWh, down €19.70/MWh, while Slovenia’s BSP market fell €18.10/MWh to €170.45/MWh. Albania declined €34.00/MWh to €169.96/MWh, while Montenegro recorded the smallest day-on-day correction among SEE markets, falling €8.50/MWh to €169.91/MWh.
The regional decline was driven primarily by a substantial increase in expected solar output. Combined SEE and Hungarian solar generation was forecast at 6,714 MW, an increase of 1,087 MW from the previous day. This more than offset a 539 MW decline in wind generation, which was forecast at 1,859 MW.
Regional electricity consumption was projected at 29,419 MW, down 336 MW on the day. Hungarian demand declined by 103 MW to 4,481 MW, while Greek consumption fell by 153 MW to 5,784 MW. Demand in Romania and Bulgaria increased slightly by 43 MW to a combined 9,160 MW, while Slovenia and Croatia recorded a 22 MW decline to 8,690 MW.
The impact of solar generation was particularly visible in the hourly price structure. Hungarian peakload averaged only €132.80/MWh, compared with an off-peak average of €203.30/MWh. HUPX prices fell as low as €2.80/MWh during hour 14 before reaching a daily maximum of €311.60/MWh in hour 20.
Greece experienced an even sharper midday adjustment. Its peakload contract averaged €59.40/MWh, with at least one hour clearing at zero, while off-peak electricity averaged €187.30/MWh. Bulgarian peakload averaged €93.30/MWh, compared with the same €187.30/MWh off-peak level. The widening gap between midday and evening prices highlights the growing influence of solar production and the continuing scarcity of flexible capacity after sunset.
Cross-border flows further amplified the market split. Net imports into the combined Hungary-SEE area fell by 808 MW to just 255 MW. Flows from Austria and Slovakia into Hungary and Slovenia declined by 919 MW to 701 MW, while the region exported an average of 892 MW towards Italy.
The reduction in core imports coincided with a complete reversal of the Hungarian-German spot spread. HUPX traded €14.32/MWh below Germany, compared with a Hungarian premium of around €9.90/MWh a day earlier. German EPEX prices increased €2.30/MWh to €182.33/MWh, while Austria declined €6.10/MWh to €183.73/MWh.
Italy remained the clear regional outlier. Its national day-ahead price rose €4.10/MWh to €227.74/MWh, leaving Italy at a premium of €59.72/MWh to Hungary, €87.45/MWh to Bulgaria and more than €104/MWh to Greece. Italy’s firm price profile, including a minimum hourly price of €185.10/MWh, contrasted sharply with the near-zero midday prices recorded in parts of SEE.
The combination of strong Italian prices and softer SEE markets created a strong commercial signal for north-to-south and east-to-west electricity exports where transmission capacity was available. The 892 MW average flow towards Italy absorbed part of the regional surplus but was insufficient to prevent the pronounced decline in SEE peakload prices.
Forward markets also weakened. Hungary’s week 39 contract fell €8.00/MWh to €183.50/MWh, while week 40 declined €15.00/MWh to €183.00/MWh. The October Hungarian contract dropped €7.50/MWh to €197.50/MWh, while calendar 2026 fell €5.50/MWh to €151.50/MWh.
The Hungarian forward premium over Germany remained positive despite the sell-off. Hungary traded €15.50/MWh above Germany for week 39, €18.50/MWh higher for week 40 and €32.00/MWh higher for October. The calendar spread stood at €21.50/MWh, up €0.50/MWh on the day, indicating that the structural risk premium attached to Hungarian supply remains despite the near-term spot correction.
Fuel and carbon markets provided additional bearish support. Austrian CEGH gas declined €3.10/MWh to €81.63/MWh, while the October gas forward fell €2.50/MWh to €81.50/MWh. European carbon allowances dropped €2.40 per tonne to €85.61, reducing the marginal cost of gas- and coal-fired generation. October coal was unchanged at $140.50 per tonne, while the fourth-quarter contract eased $0.50 to $140.00 per tonne.
The daily correction therefore reflected more than a broad decline in fuel costs. A 1.1 GW increase in solar output compressed peak prices, lower consumption reduced system tightness, and limited access to the high-priced Italian market left more surplus electricity within SEE. Evening prices remained elevated, however, showing that the region’s underlying flexibility shortage persists once solar production falls away.
