Wholesale electricity prices increased across most Southeast European markets in the week to September 13, despite a broad decline in regional electricity consumption. The divergence highlights the growing role of renewable generation, power plant availability and cross-border transmission capacity in shaping short-term electricity prices.
Electricity demand across the monitored region fell 4.7% week on week to 17.67 TWh, with consumption declining in almost all markets. Greece, Serbia, Croatia, Bulgaria, Hungary and Türkiye all recorded lower demand, while Romania was the only market to register an increase, with consumption rising 1% to 920.3 GWh.
Lower demand, however, did not result in lower wholesale prices. Serbia recorded the largest weekly increase, with its average price rising 11.1% to €155.70/MWh. Croatia followed with an 8.5% increase to €176.34/MWh, while prices rose 6.2% to €177.28/MWh in Romania, 4.6% to €177.31/MWh in Hungary and 2.5% to €166.96/MWh in Bulgaria.
Greece and Türkiye were the main exceptions to the regional trend. Greece recorded a 3.2% decline in its weekly average to €155.32/MWh, while Türkiye saw prices fall 8.9% to €47.37/MWh, leaving the Turkish market at a substantial discount to interconnected European markets.
Changes in the generation mix offer a clearer explanation for the price movements. Wind and solar output fell 7% to 3.66 TWh, removing around 270 GWh of low-marginal-cost electricity from the regional system. Hydropower generation declined 2.1%, while thermal generation also decreased by 1.8%.
Cross-border electricity trading weakened significantly during the week. Net regional electricity flows fell 23.2% to 0.94 TWh, reducing the ability of lower-priced markets to compensate for tighter supply conditions in neighbouring systems. Bulgaria increased its exports, while Romania, Hungary and Croatia reduced their import positions.
The latest weekly data show that electricity demand alone is becoming a less reliable indicator of short-term price movements across Southeast Europe. Renewable availability, dispatchable generation and interconnector capacity can increasingly determine whether lower consumption translates into cheaper electricity or simply reduces demand within an otherwise tight market.
Elevated by Virtu.Energy
