Southeast European day-ahead electricity markets moved sharply lower for delivery on 4 June as rising imports from Central Europe combined with weaker wind and solar generation to ease regional supply tightness, while Albania remained the only major market posting gains.
Hungary’s HUPX baseload contract fell by 27.7% day on day to €88.57/MWh, dragging most neighbouring markets lower. Romania’s OPCOM and Bulgaria’s IBEX both settled at €91.05/MWh, while Serbia’s SEEPEX closed at €91.61/MWh. Slovenia’s BSP and Croatia’s CROPEX recorded the steepest declines, falling to €75.30/MWh and €77.61/MWh, respectively.
The Adriatic region remained fragmented, with Albania’s ALPEX climbing 18.4% to €119.02/MWh, maintaining a substantial premium over the rest of the Balkans and highlighting persistent regional price divergence.
Regional electricity demand remained broadly stable at 28.3 GW, but total generation dropped to 26.95 GW, creating a larger reliance on imports. Wind output declined by approximately 675 MW, while solar generation fell by 857 MW compared with the previous day. Hydro generation partially compensated for the renewable decline, increasing by 214 MW, but not enough to offset the overall supply deficit.
As domestic production weakened, net imports into the SEE-Hungary region surged to 2,869 MW, up 1,300 MW day on day. Imports from Austria and Slovakia through the Core region rose to 3,939 MW, an increase of 1,653 MW, highlighting the growing role of Central European supply flows in balancing Balkan markets.
The Hungarian-German day-ahead spread widened to €27.23/MWh, supporting continued west-east power flows into Hungary and onward into Southeast Europe and reinforcing the importance of cross-border arbitrage opportunities.
Cross-border flow data showed Hungary remained the principal import hub in the region, recording average net imports of 1,540 MW, while Romania imported 580 MW, Serbia 672 MW and Croatia 674 MW. Greece remained a net exporter at 581 MW, supported by stronger domestic generation and continued renewable output resilience.
Hourly market profiles indicated that most exchanges experienced a pronounced solar-driven price collapse during midday hours, with several markets approaching zero-price territory. Evening ramps remained elevated as solar generation declined and thermal units returned to set marginal prices, reinforcing intraday volatility patterns.
Despite weaker spot markets, forward contracts remained firm. Hungarian Week-24 baseload traded around €112/MWh, while Calendar-2026 contracts held near €114.50/MWh, suggesting traders continue to price tighter summer fundamentals despite the current weakness in prompt markets and ongoing seasonal risk expectations.
Gas and carbon markets were largely supportive. Austrian CEGH month-ahead gas rose to €50.62/MWh, while December 2026 EU Allowances traded around €78.6/tCO₂, maintaining cost support for thermal generation across the region and reinforcing marginal pricing pressure.
Market participants continued to monitor the growing pricing divergence between Italy and Southeast Europe. Italian day-ahead power traded at €136.96/MWh, more than €45/MWh above Serbia and Romania and around €43/MWh above Montenegro. The spread continues to support increasing utilisation of Adriatic interconnection capacity and reinforces expectations that the western Balkans will play a larger role in supplying renewable electricity to Italy during periods of surplus generation, strengthening cross-regional flow dynamics.
Looking ahead, weather forecasts point to gradually rising temperatures across most Southeast European markets through the weekend. While improving solar conditions could maintain pressure on midday prices, traders expect evening peaks to remain supported by strong Italian demand, elevated cross-border exports and continued dependence on imports during periods of weaker renewable generation, sustaining high intraday price volatility.
