On April 22, day-ahead power prices across Southeast Europe witnessed notable declines, primarily attributed to robust hydroelectric generation and a marked increase in cross-border imports. The combination of these factors has led to an oversupply in the regional electricity market.
In Hungary, the day-ahead baseload price on the HUPX exchange settled at €111.37/MWh, reflecting a decrease of €11.2/MWh from the prior session. More pronounced losses were observed in neighboring countries, with Serbia’s SEEPEX falling to €88.65/MWh (-€25.1) and Croatia’s CROPEX dropping to €96.48/MWh (-€13.2). Slovenia’s BSP recorded a price of €92.91/MWh (-€15.4), while Albania’s ALPEX experienced the steepest decline, settling at €75.06/MWh (-€39.3).
Conversely, Romania’s OPCOM showed relative stability with a price of €116.18/MWh (-€1.3), while Greece’s HENEX diverged from the downward trend, rising to €114.50/MWh (+€31.4), driven by tighter local market conditions.
The downward movement in prices can be primarily linked to a substantial increase in generation capacity within the SEE-Hungary system, which rose by 612 MW day on day. This growth was significantly bolstered by a 530 MW increase in hydro production, alongside increases in gas and coal outputs. However, solar generation saw a decline of 676 MW, which partially countered the overall increase in supply.
The region also experienced heightened cross-border electricity flows, with net imports climbing to 2,419 MW, an increase of 833 MW from the previous day. Key flows from Central Europe, particularly from Austria and Slovakia into Hungary and subsequently into other SEE markets, remained strong at 3,116 MW, further applying downward pressure on prices.
The price differential between Hungary and Germany narrowed to €32.7/MWh, decreasing by €7/MWh compared to the previous day. This development indicates improved market coupling with Central European electricity markets and enhanced arbitrage opportunities within the region.
Demand dynamics offered limited support for prices, with consumption rising modestly to 31,016 MW (+333 MW), as temperatures began to rise seasonally. Despite this uptick in demand, it lagged behind supply growth, resulting in a structurally long system.
Intraday pricing patterns revealed ongoing volatility; several markets recorded near-zero or negative prices during off-peak hours, while evening peak prices surged above €270/MWh in Hungary due to challenges in intra-day balancing caused by variable renewable energy outputs and fluctuating cross-border flows.
The fuel market backdrop was largely neutral during this period; Austrian gas hub prices (CEGH) increased slightly to €43.52/MWh, while carbon prices remained stable around €75–76/t. This stability suggests that immediate power price fluctuations were predominantly driven by supply-demand fundamentals rather than changes in input costs.
Southeast Europe’s electricity market is currently transitioning into a spring oversupply phase characterized by enhanced hydro inflows and increased reliance on imports as well as tighter integration with Central European pricing mechanisms.
