Hungarian, Romanian and Central SEE day-ahead prices fell sharply for 14 August delivery as stronger solar generation outweighed stable demand. Greece decoupled at the bottom of the market, while Italy’s premium continued to support regional exports.
Day-ahead electricity prices declined across most of Southeast Europe for delivery on 14 August 2026, reflecting a sharp increase in forecast solar generation and broadly unchanged regional consumption. Despite lower baseload prices, hourly profiles revealed persistent evening tightness and exceptionally wide intraday spreads.
Hungary’s HUPX baseload price fell by €19.90 to €143.76/MWh. Romania declined by €20.60 to €142.91/MWh, Slovenia by €21.50 to €144.19/MWh and Croatia by €20.90 to €143.95/MWh.
These four markets remained closely coupled, with only €1.28/MWh separating the highest and lowest prices. Austria, at €143.25/MWh, also traded close to the cluster.
Serbia recorded the largest absolute decline, falling €22.50 to €134.72/MWh. Bulgaria settled at €125.33/MWh after a €13 decline, while Albania dropped €11.30 to €135.33/MWh.
Greece remained the region’s cheapest market at €96.98/MWh, despite increasing €1.20 on the day. The Greek price was €46.78 below HUPX. At the opposite end, Montenegro rose €9.50 to €151.51/MWh, while Italy remained the most expensive major market at €174.55/MWh.
Solar reshapes the market
Regional electricity consumption was forecast at 31,835 MW, only 54 MW higher than the previous day. Supply conditions changed more substantially: forecast solar generation increased by 1,916 MW, while wind output declined by 531 MW. Combined solar and wind availability therefore rose by approximately 1,385 MW.
The increase in solar output pushed midday prices sharply lower. In Hungary, the hourly minimum reached €29.60/MWh at H12, compared with a daily maximum of €261.70/MWh at H21. The resulting intraday range was €232.10/MWh.
HUPX’s reported peak average was only €111.40/MWh, substantially below the €176.10/MWh off-peak average. This inversion reflects weak solar-heavy daytime hours and much stronger prices during the evening ramp.
The pattern was even more pronounced in Greece. HENEX reached zero at H12, with the peak-block average falling to €46.50/MWh. Prices later recovered to a maximum of €161.40/MWh at H20.
Italy’s profile was considerably firmer. Its national price remained above €130/MWh even at the daily minimum and reached €254.70/MWh at H21. The sustained Italian premium helped maintain an economic incentive for SEE exports toward Italy.
Regional exports increase
The SEE and Hungarian system was a net exporter of approximately 471 MW on average, an increase of 281 MW from the previous day. Flows toward Italy amounted to around 1,261 MW, consistent with Italy trading €30.79/MWh above Hungary.
At the same time, imports from Austria and Slovakia into Hungary and Slovenia averaged 894 MW, down by 151 MW.
Greek consumption declined by 458 MW as temperatures fell by 1.6°C, reinforcing the country’s surplus and low-price position. Greece has also become a more prominent regional exporter, supported by expanding renewable generation and reduced domestic demand during favorable weather conditions.
Prompt forwards weaken
The bearish day-ahead movement extended into Hungarian prompt power contracts. Week 34 fell by €4 to €156.50/MWh, Week 35 declined by €3.50 to €157/MWh and September lost €1.50 to settle at €161/MWh.
Hungarian forward prices nevertheless retained a substantial premium over Germany. The HU-DE spread stood at €25.50/MWh for Week 34, €27.50/MWh for Week 35 and €26.50/MWh for September, although each of these prompt spreads narrowed during the session.
Gas and carbon provided a mixed signal. CEGH gas declined by €1.20 to €60.73/MWh, while EU allowances increased by €0.80 to €82.74 per tonne. September gas rose by €1.50 to €61.50/MWh. The combination of lower prompt power prices and firmer near-term gas could compress thermal generation margins outside the high-priced evening hours.
Nuclear availability remains the principal upside risk
The immediate market direction is bearish during solar-heavy hours, but supply risks remain significant.
Both units at Romania’s Cernavoda nuclear power plant were unavailable, removing approximately 1,360 MW of capacity that normally supplies close to one-fifth of Romanian electricity consumption. Romania has requested regional support and is seeking to retain almost 900 MW of coal-fired capacity beyond its planned retirement date.
Low Danube water levels also represent a risk for Hungary’s Paks nuclear plant. Emergency construction work has begun to protect cooling-water availability, highlighting the vulnerability of nuclear generation to persistent drought conditions.
For traders, the strongest signal is therefore not simply lower baseload prices, but greater hourly volatility. Solar output is depressing midday contracts, while evening scarcity continues to produce sharp price spikes. Italian export demand, nuclear availability and Danube conditions will remain the main factors capable of tightening the market and reversing the current bearish prompt trend.
