Most Southeast European markets declined on 12 August as wind and solar forecasts increased sharply, turning the region from a net importer into a small net exporter.
Day-ahead electricity prices fell across most of Southeast Europe and Hungary on Wednesday, 12 August, as stronger renewable generation and softer demand improved the regional power balance.
Hungary’s HUPX baseload contract settled at EUR 144.89/MWh, down EUR 6.50/MWh from the previous session. Romania dropped EUR 11.60 to EUR 137.91/MWh, while Bulgaria declined EUR 21.10 to EUR 125.58/MWh. Serbia recorded the largest fall, losing EUR 36.30 to settle at EUR 113.61/MWh.
Greece remained the cheapest market in the group at EUR 104.46/MWh, down EUR 11.30. Slovenia and Croatia stayed close to Hungary at EUR 145.07/MWh and EUR 144.53/MWh respectively, while Montenegro settled at EUR 141.50/MWh and North Macedonia at EUR 139.47/MWh.
Albania was the only Southeast European market to post a notable increase, rising EUR 6.60 to EUR 156.43/MWh. Italy remained the most expensive neighboring market at EUR 176.07/MWh despite a EUR 5.10 decline.
Germany moved against the regional trend, climbing EUR 28 to EUR 138.40/MWh. As a result, Hungary’s premium over Germany narrowed sharply to EUR 6.49/MWh from about EUR 41/MWh a day earlier. Hungary traded EUR 40.43/MWh above Greece, EUR 19.30 above Bulgaria and EUR 31.27 above Serbia.
The main bearish driver was a large day-on-day increase in renewable output. Forecast solar generation across Hungary and SEE rose by 1,731 MW to 8,904 MW, while wind increased by 1,193 MW to 3,825 MW. Combined wind and solar output was therefore expected to reach 12,729 MW, up 2,924 MW from the previous day.
Regional electricity consumption was forecast at 33,615 MW, 250 MW lower day on day. Hungary accounted for much of the decline, with demand falling 453 MW to 4,610 MW. Consumption increased by 407 MW in Romania and Bulgaria and by 23 MW in Greece, while Slovenia and Croatia posted a combined decline of 265 MW.
The stronger renewable balance transformed cross-border trading. Hungary and SEE moved from net imports of 1,786 MW on Tuesday to net exports of 214 MW on Wednesday, a 2,000 MW swing. Imports from Austria and Slovakia fell by 1,793 MW to 1,089 MW. At the same time, the region exported about 1,302 MW toward Italy, up 237 MW from the previous day.
Country data showed Greece as the largest net exporter at 1,763 MW, followed by Bulgaria at 1,155 MW. Hungary remained the largest importer at 1,468 MW, while Croatia, Serbia, Slovenia and Montenegro were also in deficit. Romania recorded a small net export position of 287 MW.
Near-term Hungarian power forwards strengthened even as the spot market eased. Week 34 rose EUR 6.50 to EUR 161/MWh and week 35 gained the same amount to EUR 160/MWh. September power, however, fell EUR 3.50 to EUR 160/MWh, while calendar 2026 declined EUR 1.50 to EUR 125/MWh.
The week-ahead Hungarian premium over Germany widened to EUR 30.50/MWh for week 34 and EUR 36.50/MWh for week 35. The September spread stood at EUR 28/MWh, while the calendar 2026 spread was unchanged at EUR 20.50/MWh.
Fuel markets provided additional downward pressure further along the curve. September gas fell EUR 2 to EUR 60/MWh and the fourth-quarter contract declined EUR 2.50 to the same level. Austrian CEGH spot gas was broadly unchanged at EUR 60.75/MWh. EU carbon allowances edged EUR 0.20 higher to EUR 82.44/t, while September coal rose USD 0.50 to USD 122/t and the fourth-quarter contract held at USD 124.50/t.
The daily data point to a well-supplied prompt market, with almost 3 GW of additional wind and solar generation more than offsetting modest changes in demand. The sharp reduction in core imports and the switch to net exports confirm the immediate easing in the regional balance. However, the rise in Hungarian week-ahead prices indicates that traders are not extending the same bearish view into the next delivery period.
