Serbia’s planned electricity trade for 2026 includes imports of 6,931GWh and exports of 7,410GWh, according to the official electricity balance. Imports are projected to be about 14% lower than in 2025, while exports are expected to be roughly 2% higher. On that basis, Serbia would end the year with a physical net surplus of around 479GWh.
The projected surplus does not indicate that Serbia operates without external supply. The small difference between exports and imports reflects large cross-border exchanges used to address hourly production shortfalls, thermal-plant availability, hydrology conditions, renewable variability and changing regional prices.
Import volumes relative to domestic consumption
Gross imports are forecast at about 23% of projected final electricity consumption of 29,972GWh. Combined cross-border trade in both directions should total close to 14.34TWh. This volume profile places Serbia in a role as a regional trading, transit and balancing market.
The commercial outcome is linked more closely to the prices at which electricity is bought and sold than to the annual net position alone. Exports can occur during periods of high hydro output, favourable wind conditions or lower domestic consumption. Repurchases may then be needed during winter evenings, droughts or outages when prices are substantially higher.
Price spreads and gross procurement exposure
A net exporter in physical terms can still face an unfavourable financial result if import costs exceed export revenues. The key factor is the spread between the average export price and the cost of electricity imported during deficit hours.
Using an illustrative average import price of €80/MWh, Serbia’s planned gross imports would be worth about €555m. At €100/MWh, the value rises to roughly €693m, and at €130/MWh it reaches approximately €901m. These figures are scenario values rather than a forecast of the actual import bill.
Purchases are executed through bilateral contracts, exchanges, balancing arrangements and different delivery products. The calculation nevertheless indicates how sensitive Serbia’s procurement exposure is to regional wholesale price levels. Every additional €10/MWh across the planned import volume would add around €69m to gross expenditure, while a €20/MWh increase would raise costs by roughly €139m, before considering hedging, export revenues and transaction timing.
Operational drivers for Elektroprivreda Srbije imports
Elektroprivreda Srbije (EPS), the country’s dominant producer and supplier, treats imports as both an operational tool and a liquidity risk. EPS’s generation portfolio is centred on lignite-fired thermal plants and hydropower, with wind and solar contributing a growing but smaller share.
Imports become necessary when lignite production declines, coal quality deteriorates, thermal-unit availability falls or hydrological conditions weaken. They are also used commercially when electricity available in neighbouring markets is cheaper than the marginal cost of domestic generation.
The plan calls for reducing imports from about 8.1TWh in 2025 to 6.93TWh in 2026. That reduction depends on stronger domestic output and improved generating-unit availability, leaving limited room for underperformance. A prolonged outage at one large thermal unit can create several hundred gigawatt-hours of replacement demand.
If such an outage coincides with low temperatures or weak regional renewable production, EPS may need to buy during the most expensive market hours. Wholesale price structure can amplify this exposure because solar-rich afternoon imports can be relatively inexpensive while cold, low-wind evening peaks are considerably more costly. Annual import volumes therefore do not capture financial exposure without corresponding hourly price data.
Hydropower flexibility and lignite availability risks
Renewables growth and changing import patterns
The expansion of wind and solar will change how imports develop over time, but the two technologies are not interchangeable in their system impact. Wind generation typically has a higher capacity factor and can produce during winter, overnight periods and when solar output is unavailable. This profile can reduce some seasonal and evening imports that would otherwise be more expensive.
Solar reduces daytime demand for thermal generation and imports, particularly during spring and summer. However, large solar volumes can create midday surpluses without addressing evening deficits. Serbia may export during low-priced solar hours and then import after sunset at a higher price.
Batteries under the 1GW state solar programme
This price-shape risk becomes more significant as renewable capacity grows. Serbia has reached about 1,232MW of installed wind and solar capacity compared with just over 400MW several years earlier, while its strategic target is around 3.5GW by 2030.
The planned 1GW state solar programme with battery storage could affect Serbia’s daytime electricity balance materially. Its contribution to import reduction depends on how the storage component is sized and dispatched.
Batteries can shift part of solar surplus into evening hours, reduce peak purchases and provide balancing services. They cannot cover prolonged winter shortages or several consecutive days of weak renewable generation unless storage duration and energy capacity are exceptionally large.
Interconnection with neighbouring markets
Serbia’s position is supported by extensive interconnection with Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia and Albania. This provides access to multiple generation systems combining nuclear, hydro, coal, gas, wind and solar resources.
The connections enable purchases when neighbouring prices are lower even if domestic generation could theoretically meet demand. Not all imports therefore indicate an energy shortage; some volumes reflect commercial optimisation, transit flows or simultaneous trading across borders.
Curtailment risk from cross-border capacity constraints
The limiting factor for cross-border trade is available transmission capacity. Transmission rights become more valuable during regional shortages when energy prices rise as well. The delivered cost of imported electricity therefore includes both the energy price and the cost of securing transmission capacity.
If congestion prevents access to the cheapest neighbouring source, Serbia may have to buy through a more expensive route even when lower-priced electricity exists elsewhere in Southeast Europe. Imports should be analysed through four components: scheduled commercial purchases, balancing energy, emergency assistance and transit-related flows. Combining these into one annual number obscures different economic reasons behind cross-border exchanges.
Southeast Europe pricing effects on industry contracts
The financial consequences extend beyond EPS into large industrial consumers’ procurement strategies. Offers for major users incorporate elements linked partly to SEEPEX prices , regional forwards , balancing costs and suppliers’ assessment of import risk . Higher replacement costs can appear in new commercial contracts even when regulated household tariffs adjust more slowly.
Sectors including steel, copper, cement, chemicals, mining and food processing face particular exposure because they cannot easily stop production during expensive hours. Their electricity procurement must account for similar hourly and seasonal risks as those affecting the national system.
PPA design limits for solar-only coverage
A long-term power purchase agreement can reduce part of this exposure but contract design remains critical. A solar-only PPA may cover daytime consumption while leaving buyers exposed during winter evenings when demand peaks occur after sunset.
Wind offers a different generation profile that can be valuable but does not guarantee constant supply. A diversified wind-solar portfolio combined with grid supply, flexible consumption and appropriately sized battery storage is described as a route toward reducing exposure during expensive periods; the relevant measure is the residual hourly position left open to market purchases rather than annual contracted renewable shares.
