Serbia is preparing emergency fuel-supply measures while advancing a longer-term crude pipeline from Hungary, amid uncertainty over whether the US Office of Foreign Assets Control will extend the licence allowing NIS to operate beyond 28 August. The immediate issue is how Serbian fuel supply would work if another waiver is not granted. Authorities and NIS are assessing refinery inventories, processing rates, and whether crude deliveries via Croatia’s JANAF pipeline can continue.
Contingency planning for NIS operations and product imports
Officials are evaluating the ability to maintain refinery output if crude inflows are disrupted. The government is also examining alternative routes for importing finished petroleum products if refinery production has to be reduced. The planning aims to identify how much replacement fuel other suppliers could deliver to Serbia and through which channels.
Energy Minister Dubravka Đedović said a decision on the waiver may be made only shortly before the existing authorisation expires. The sanctions-related uncertainty has highlighted the strategic importance of diversifying Serbia’s crude supply infrastructure. The assessment of inventories, processing capability, and imported product availability is therefore central to near-term supply security.
Hungary-Novi Sad pipeline tender and timelines
A new pipeline between the Hungarian border and Novi Sad could begin construction before the end of 2026, subject to completion of required procedures. Transnafta has already launched the construction tender for the project. The planned line would have annual capacity of around 5.5 million tonnes.
The pipeline is expected to take approximately two and a half years to complete. Serbia’s project is not intended to replace JANAF, but to create a second major crude corridor that can reduce dependence on a single import route. Because construction will take several years, the Hungarian corridor would not address an immediate disruption to NIS operations.
Documentation status for NIS waiver extension
Djedovic said Serbia has completed its part of the documentation and negotiations related to NIS, with further developments dependent on other parties. She added that additional steps could require discussions at the highest political level. The market is therefore operating with two timelines: the 28 August deadline affecting immediate refinery and fuel-market risk, and the longer-term infrastructure build-out.
The proposed Hungary-Novi Sad pipeline is described as a structural response intended to provide greater flexibility over both crude origin and transport route in future supply disruptions. While domestic oil production cannot cover Serbian demand, long-term supply security would rely on infrastructure diversity, multiple suppliers, and alternative commercial arrangements.
The sanctions episode has also exposed vulnerability when most imported refinery feedstock depends on a limited number of channels. Serbia’s direction remains focused on maintaining JANAF while developing a second crude corridor rather than replacing one dependency with another.
