Day-ahead electricity prices across Southeast Europe declined from Thursday’s extreme levels on 30 October, although markets in the eastern part of the region remained close to €300/MWh as weaker renewable generation increased import requirements and maintained pressure on regional supply.
Regional net electricity imports increased by 1,316 MW day on day to an average of 4,995 MW, despite a marginal decline in forecast consumption of 88 MW to 34,209 MW. The main change came from renewable generation, with forecast solar output falling by 696 MW to 2,342 MW and wind production dropping by almost 2 GW to 3,301 MW. Combined wind and solar availability was therefore approximately 2.68 GW lower than on Thursday.
Lower renewable generation pushed the region towards greater dependence on electricity supplies from Central Europe. Average imports from Austria and Slovakia into the Hungary-SEE region increased by 1,045 MW to 4,438 MW, while flows from Italy rose by 88 MW to 580 MW. The increase in cross-border imports, despite broadly stable regional consumption, highlights declining generation availability as the primary factor behind Friday’s tighter market conditions.
Hungary’s HUPX day-ahead base price declined by €18.5/MWh to €306.05/MWh, but remained significantly higher than prices in Germany at €268.62/MWh, Austria at €275.23/MWh and Italy at €274.04/MWh. The HUPX-Germany price differential widened by €27.7/MWh to €37.43/MWh, reflecting a considerably faster decline in German electricity prices.
Eastern Southeast European markets continued to trade within a narrow price range around €300/MWh. Romania settled at €303.56/MWh, Serbia at €303.29/MWh, Bulgaria at €302.20/MWh and Albania at €302.02/MWh. Serbia recorded a daily decline of €26.8/MWh, while Albania experienced the largest correction among the regional markets, with prices falling by €64.8/MWh.
Markets further south maintained higher price levels. North Macedonia recorded the region’s highest day-ahead price at €321.66/MWh, followed by Montenegro at €313.98/MWh. Montenegro was among the few markets to register an increase, with its average price rising by €1.2/MWh compared with the previous day.
Greece followed a different trajectory, with the HENEX day-ahead price increasing by €49/MWh to €287.75/MWh. The movement narrowed Hungary’s premium over Greece to €18.30/MWh, compared with a differential almost €68/MWh wider on Thursday. Despite the increase, Greece remained substantially cheaper than the eastern Balkan markets.
Hourly price developments continued to reveal significant supply tightness during evening peak periods. On SEEPEX, Serbia’s average base price of €303.3/MWh included a €331.3/MWh peak average, while the daily maximum reached €416.3/MWh at H18. Montenegro recorded an hourly high of €407.2/MWh at the same hour, while North Macedonia peaked at €460/MWh, also at H18.
Hungary’s domestic electricity balance remained constrained despite lower consumption. Average demand declined to 5,169 MW from 5,418 MW, while domestic generation fell from 3,504 MW to 3,141 MW. The resulting supply gap left Hungary with average net imports of approximately 2,028 MW. The country continued exporting substantial electricity volumes towards Romania while sourcing power from Austria, Slovakia and other neighbouring markets.
Fuel markets maintained an elevated underlying cost base for electricity generation. CEGH gas traded at €100.23/MWh, down €1.8/MWh on the day, while EU carbon allowances stood at €89.2/t. November gas contracts were priced at €99.50/MWh and Q1 2027 at €98.50/MWh, keeping the cost of gas-fired electricity generation high across Southeast Europe.
Forward electricity prices suggest that market participants do not expect the regional price premium to disappear in the near term. Hungarian Week 45 power traded at €313/MWh, Week 46 at €310/MWh and November at €293/MWh. The forward premium over Germany was even more pronounced, reaching €63.5/MWh for Week 45 and €84/MWh for Week 46.
The latest market developments reinforce the structural vulnerability of Southeast Europe to periods of weaker renewable generation. Lower electricity demand is not sufficient to bring prices down substantially when wind and solar output decline, particularly when regional markets must compete for additional supplies from Central Europe. This combination is sustaining an eastern SEE price cluster around €300/MWh, preserving significant premiums over Germany, Austria and Italy and exposing the region to particularly high prices during evening peak hours.
