Day-ahead electricity prices across Southeast Europe eased from Thursday’s extreme levels on 30 October, but markets in the eastern part of the region remained firmly around €300/MWh as weaker renewable output increased reliance on imports and kept supply conditions tight.
Regional net imports rose by 1,316 MW day on day to an average 4,995 MW, despite a marginal 88 MW decline in forecast consumption to 34,209 MW. The main change came from renewable generation, with forecast solar output falling by 696 MW to 2,342 MW and wind production dropping by almost 2 GW to 3,301 MW. Combined wind and solar availability was therefore around 2.68 GW lower than a day earlier.
The decline in renewable generation increased the region’s dependence on electricity imports from Central Europe. Average flows from Austria and Slovakia into the Hungary-SEE region jumped by 1,045 MW to 4,438 MW, while imports from Italy increased by 88 MW to 580 MW. The stronger cross-border dependence, despite broadly stable demand, points to weaker supply rather than consumption as the main driver of Friday’s tight market conditions.
Hungary’s HUPX day-ahead base price fell by €18.5/MWh to €306.05/MWh, but remained significantly above Germany at €268.62/MWh, Austria at €275.23/MWh and Italy at €274.04/MWh. The HUPX-Germany spread widened by €27.7/MWh to €37.43/MWh, as German prices declined considerably faster than Hungarian prices.
Eastern SEE markets remained tightly clustered around the €300/MWh level. Romania settled at €303.56/MWh, Serbia at €303.29/MWh, Bulgaria at €302.20/MWh and Albania at €302.02/MWh. Serbia’s price declined by €26.8/MWh from Thursday, while Albania recorded the largest correction in the region, falling by €64.8/MWh.
Further south, prices remained higher. North Macedonia was the most expensive regional market at €321.66/MWh, followed by Montenegro at €313.98/MWh. Montenegro was also one of the few markets to strengthen on the day, with its price increasing by €1.2/MWh.
Greece moved against the broader regional trend, with HENEX rising by €49/MWh to €287.75/MWh. This significantly narrowed Hungary’s premium over Greece to €18.30/MWh, compared with a spread almost €68/MWh wider a day earlier. Greece nevertheless remained considerably cheaper than the eastern Balkan markets.
Hourly price profiles continued to show pronounced scarcity during the evening period. On SEEPEX, Serbia’s base price of €303.3/MWh included a €331.3/MWh peak average, while the daily maximum reached €416.3/MWh at H18. Montenegro reached €407.2/MWh at H18, while North Macedonia climbed to as much as €460/MWh, also at H18.
Hungary’s domestic fundamentals remained tight despite lower consumption. Average demand fell to 5,169 MW from 5,418 MW, but domestic generation declined even more sharply, reaching 3,141 MW compared with 3,504 MW previously. This left Hungary with average net imports of around 2,028 MW. The country continued to export significant volumes towards Romania while simultaneously drawing electricity from Austria, Slovakia and other neighbouring markets.
Fuel markets continued to establish a high underlying price floor. CEGH gas stood at €100.23/MWh, down €1.8/MWh on the day, while EU carbon allowances traded at €89.2/t. November gas was priced at €99.50/MWh and Q1 2027 at €98.50/MWh, maintaining elevated costs for gas-fired power generation across the region.
Forward prices indicate that traders do not expect the regional premium to disappear quickly. Hungarian Week 45 power stood at €313/MWh, Week 46 at €310/MWh and November at €293/MWh. More significantly, the HU-DE forward spread reached €63.5/MWh for Week 45 and €84/MWh for Week 46, signalling expectations of continued tightness relative to Germany.
The trading picture at the end of October is increasingly clear: SEE remains structurally short when renewable production weakens. Lower demand alone is not sufficient to materially reduce prices when wind and solar availability falls, forcing Hungary and the Balkan markets to compete for limited Central European imports. This is keeping eastern SEE prices clustered around €300/MWh, maintaining significant premiums over Germany, Austria and Italy and producing particularly strong scarcity pricing during evening peak hours.
