August diesel demand and distribution pressure
Diesel demand is forecast to reach approximately 200,000 tonnes in August, which would make it the strongest month of the year. Summer travel, agriculture and freight activity are expected to add pressure to the distribution system. The supply outlook is being assessed alongside these seasonal demand factors.
River shipment delays and import conditions
Navigation restrictions have delayed river shipments while fuel prices in Mediterranean markets remain elevated. Imports fell to very low levels in July, and similar logistical conditions are expected to persist during August. This has increased reliance on domestic refining and alternative logistics arrangements.
NIS Pančevo refinery output under US sanctions waiver
NIS increased production at the Pančevo refinery in response to the import constraints. The facility is processing approximately 11,000 tonnes of crude oil per day, equivalent to around 330,000 tonnes during August. Management said this level reflects the maximum achievable output under the company’s current one-month US sanctions waiver, valid until 28 August .
NIS plans to raise processing capacity to approximately 13,000 tonnes per day in the coming months. At that rate, monthly throughput could approach 390,000 tonnes, depending on the operating schedule and crude-supply availability. The company’s ability to maintain crude access is therefore a key factor for planned volumes.
Inventories, sales expectations and strategic reserves
Jet-fuel inventories are sufficient to cover approximately six weeks of domestic demand. Petrol production and distribution are described as uninterrupted. NIS expects combined diesel and petrol sales to reach their highest August level in five years .
Serbia also holds strategic fuel reserves that can be released if commercial inventories or refinery supply prove insufficient. The government is monitoring river conditions, rail capacity and alternative routes, while noting that the immediate supply position depends on sustained refinery operation and continued access to crude oil .
The Danube disruption has shifted supply security toward domestic refining rather than imported products. Pančevo’s operating reliability and the continuation of NIS’s sanctions authorisation are highlighted as more significant than headline inventory volumes alone.
