Recent developments in the South-East European electricity markets have led to notable price increases, driven by a decrease in solar generation alongside an uptick in thermal dispatch and cross-border imports. Day-ahead prices surged above the €120/MWh mark across various regional exchanges on Friday, indicating a shift in market dynamics.
On the HUPX day-ahead market in Hungary, prices stabilized at €140.45/MWh, maintaining its status as one of the highest-priced hubs in Central and Eastern Europe. Romania’s OPCOM saw a further increase to €144.45/MWh, while Bulgaria’s IBEX and Croatia’s CROPEX recorded rises to €131.75/MWh and €130.20/MWh, respectively. Serbia’s SEEPEX also experienced an uptick, closing at €122.42/MWh. In contrast, Greece’s HENEX remained lower at €122.10/MWh, despite recovering from previous low-price sessions.
The surge in prices followed a significant drop in solar generation across South-East Europe and Hungary, which fell by approximately 1.5 GW. This reduction brought total photovoltaic production down to around 4.5 GW, compared to nearly 6 GW the day before, compelling system operators and traders to increase reliance on imports and flexible thermal generation resources.
Net regional imports rose sharply to about 1,736 MW, marking an increase of nearly 800 MW from the previous day. Imports from the Central European CORE region into Hungary and SEE surpassed 1.7 GW. Simultaneously, gas-fired generation increased by around 550 MW, while wind generation grew by about 665 MW, helping to mitigate some of the impacts of reduced solar output.
The market remains acutely sensitive to fluctuations in renewable energy supply and evening demand patterns, particularly as diminished daytime solar production coincides with heightened evening demand profiles. The region’s reliance on flexible balancing resources is becoming increasingly evident during these transitional periods.
The spread between Hungary and Germany widened significantly to approximately €26.6/MWh, compared to just above €4/MWh the previous day, prompting increased commercial flows from Austria and Slovakia toward Hungary and the Balkans.
A notable aspect of this week’s trading was Romania’s pronounced intraday volatility, with OPCOM evening hourly prices exceeding €300/MWh during peak delivery times, reflecting tightening balancing conditions and a growing dependence on flexible dispatch capacity.
The overall renewable penetration across SEE remains substantial, with hydro generation accounting for roughly 23% of the regional power mix, alongside solar and nuclear each contributing around 16%. Coal’s share was approximately 19%, while gas constituted around 14%.
The gas markets exhibited relative stability, with Austrian CEGH front-month contracts trading near €45.9/MWh. EU carbon allowances remained close to €75/t, while coal forwards held firm above $110/t, continuing to support thermal generation economics in coal-centric Balkan systems.
This week also marked progress in regional energy infrastructure investment, with Bulgaria commissioning two significant projects aimed at enhancing flexibility. These include Rezolv Energy’s new 225 MW St. George solar plant paired with a 90 MW / 240 MWh battery storage system, along with Enery’s standalone 150 MW / 601.8 MWh battery installation near Nova Zagora—one of the largest operational storage facilities in Central and Eastern Europe.
The commissioning of these projects comes as European market operators brace for increasing pricing volatility linked to renewable oversupply and balancing challenges. Under revised SDAC market rules set for implementation on May 28th, the harmonized minimum clearing price for European day-ahead markets will decrease from -€500/MWh to -€600/MWh, following several negative pricing events observed across multiple bidding zones during late April and early May.
