Day-ahead electricity prices across Southeast Europe rose sharply on Monday as the market transitioned from weekend trading conditions into a higher-demand weekday structure, with stronger consumption, weaker wind output, and increased import dependence driving a broad price rally across the region.
Hungary recorded the highest day-ahead price in Southeast Europe at €151.14/MWh, followed closely by Slovenia at €145.33/MWh and Croatia at €143.50/MWh. Serbia’s SEEPEX settled at €138.00/MWh, marking an increase of nearly €40/MWh compared with the previous session, while Montenegro’s BELEN market climbed to €134.70/MWh. Greece remained the lowest-priced market at €97.12/MWh, maintaining a discount of more than €50/MWh relative to Hungary.
The sharp upward movement represented one of the strongest day-on-day increases in recent weeks and reflected tightening supply-demand conditions across both Central and Southeast Europe, driven primarily by reduced renewable output and higher weekday consumption.
Regional electricity demand rose to approximately 26.7 GW, increasing by more than 2.2 GW compared with Sunday as industrial and commercial activity returned. At the same time, generation failed to fully match demand growth, leading to a significant increase in net imports. Total imports reached 1,359 MW, nearly three times higher than the previous day, with flows from Austria and Slovakia into the wider Southeast European system exceeding 1.1 GW.
Wind generation remained the key limiting factor. Output fell to just 1.1 GW, representing around 5% of total generation, removing one of the region’s lowest-cost supply sources from the market and increasing reliance on thermal generation and imports during peak periods. Solar generation remained relatively strong at 5.5 GW, accounting for roughly 23% of the generation mix, but was insufficient to offset the evening shortfall caused by weak wind conditions.
Hydropower continued to play a dominant role, contributing approximately 26% of regional supply, supported by stable river conditions along the Danube system. Gas-fired generation accounted for 15%, matching nuclear output, while coal contributed around 14%.
In Serbia, the return of weekday demand pushed SEEPEX significantly higher, with the market reaching a maximum hourly price of €225.10/MWh, while the daily minimum remained at a firm €77.10/MWh. The absence of negative pricing events—common in some Western European markets—highlighted the structural difference in pricing dynamics across the region.
Cross-border flows confirmed Serbia’s increasing role as a balancing hub within the Balkan power system, with sustained imports from Bulgaria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, and Montenegro supporting both domestic demand and regional transit activity.
Montenegro followed a similar pattern, with BELEN prices rising by more than €47/MWh compared with Sunday. The market reached an hourly peak of €263/MWh, reflecting tightening conditions during evening demand peaks, while off-peak prices remained elevated above €167/MWh, underscoring the growing importance of scarcity pricing after sunset.
Greece continued to behave differently from its northern neighbors. High solar penetration suppressed average prices, but intraday volatility remained significant due to fluctuations in renewable output. The spread between Greece and Hungary widened to approximately €54/MWh, highlighting ongoing cross-border arbitrage opportunities where transmission capacity is available.
Forward markets indicated cautious sentiment heading into the summer period. Hungarian Week 23 futures traded at €116.50/MWh, while July 2026 contracts were assessed at €127/MWh. EU carbon allowances remained near €80.6/tCO₂, and Austrian gas prices held around €48/MWh, suggesting that recent power price strength is being driven more by system fundamentals and renewable variability than by fuel market movements.
The overall market picture shows a widening divergence between Southeast Europe and several Western European markets where negative prices remain frequent. In contrast, most Balkan markets are entering the summer period with firmly positive baseload prices, strong evening scarcity premiums, and rising reliance on imports during low renewable output periods.
For market participants, the combination of higher weekday demand, weak wind generation, and structurally tight evening conditions continues to support flexible thermal assets, hydropower optimization, battery storage economics, and cross-border trading strategies across Southeast Europe.
