The Southeast European (SEE) power markets have witnessed a notable increase in electricity prices during Week 19, from May 4 to May 10, 2026, as the regional price structure climbed above €100/MWh across most markets, with the exception of Türkiye. This surge can be attributed to a combination of factors including reduced wind generation, heightened demand, increased thermal dispatch, and elevated CO₂ and gas risk premiums stemming from geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.
Italy emerged as the most expensive market in SEE, recording prices at €131.47/MWh. It was closely followed by Romania at €123.34/MWh and Hungary at €122.62/MWh. Croatia registered a price of €117.37/MWh, Bulgaria at €111.41/MWh, Serbia at €111.36/MWh, and Greece at €106.30/MWh. Serbia’s price saw a substantial rise of 29.25%, although this increase was less pronounced than those observed in Hungary, Croatia, Bulgaria, and Romania—indicating that tighter conditions in Central Europe had a direct impact on the SEE pricing landscape. In contrast, Türkiye maintained a significantly lower price point of €16.14/MWh despite experiencing a considerable percentage increase.
Demand across the region rose by 4.34% week-on-week to reach 15,191 GWh. This uptick was primarily driven by increases in Italy and Türkiye, where demand rose by 416.3 GWh and 253.6 GWh respectively. Conversely, Serbia reported a decline in demand by 3.12%, partially explaining its comparatively modest price increase relative to neighboring countries.
A critical factor influencing these market dynamics was the significant shortfall in renewable energy sources (RES). Total variable RES output fell by 19% to 2,808.6 GWh, with wind generation experiencing a sharp decline of 32.9%. Türkiye alone suffered a loss exceeding 420 GWh in wind output; similar trends were noted in Croatia and Greece as well. While solar generation remained relatively stable with only a 6% decrease, this reduction still contributed to an increased demand for thermal generation across the region.
In response to these challenges, thermal generation surged by 39.2%, reaching a total of 4,835.9 GWh for the week. Gas-fired generation saw an impressive increase of 66.6%, while coal and lignite outputs rose by 11.1%. This week’s developments highlighted that SEE prices were not only driven by demand but were increasingly influenced by gas dispatch dynamics as well—particularly evident in Italy and Türkiye’s reliance on gas for their energy needs.
Cross-border trading patterns indicated moderate tightening within the region; net imports into SEE declined by 4.6% to settle at 1,036.6 GWh. However, Serbia’s import balance more than doubled during this period while Romania’s net imports surged dramatically by 216%. Greece and Bulgaria enhanced their export positions bolstered by conventional generation capabilities and favorable regional spreads.
On the gas front, TTF futures averaged €45.34/MWh for the week—a figure that remained relatively stable compared to previous weeks—but the market continues to grapple with uncertainties related to Middle Eastern geopolitical risks and LNG routing challenges alongside slower EU storage injections that are approximately running at 20% below last year’s figures and about 25% below the five-year average for inventories.
This week’s developments suggest that SEE is transitioning into a more volatile early-summer market environment characterized by weak wind conditions that can rapidly elevate prices above €100/MWh thresholds again as gas remains a crucial marginal driver of market dynamics. For Serbia specifically, its sensitivity to import levels becomes increasingly apparent even amid declining domestic demand levels.
