Southeast European peak power prices are expected to remain supported in the near term unless wind and hydro output recover, gas prices soften or import pressure eases in the region’s premium markets.
The week-ahead bias is constructive for SEE peak prices, based on the Week 27 tightening pattern. Demand rose, renewable and hydro output weakened, thermal generation increased and net imports climbed. These factors point to continued support for peak and evening-block prices, especially in Romania, Hungary, Serbia and Croatia.
Romania and Hungary remain the premium anchors after averaging EUR 164.31/MWh and EUR 162.04/MWh, respectively, in Week 27. Croatia averaged EUR 142.57/MWh, while Serbia rose 26.3% to EUR 139.93/MWh. These markets should remain the main focus for week-ahead price risk.
The first forecast trigger is demand. SEE consumption rose 2.1% to 18.80 TWh, led by Türkiye, Greece and Romania. If cooling demand remains elevated, peak prices are likely to stay supported. If temperatures ease, load pressure could fall and weaken the bullish case.
The second trigger is renewable output. Variable renewable generation declined 3.3% in Week 27, with wind down 5.1% and solar down 1.8%. A wind recovery would be the clearest bearish signal for prices, particularly if it occurs during high-demand periods or improves supply in markets linked to Romania, Hungary and Serbia.
The third trigger is hydro. Regional hydropower generation declined 3.4%, reducing flexible low-cost supply. A hydro recovery in Bulgaria, Romania, Serbia or Türkiye would ease system pressure. Continued hydro weakness would support thermal generation and peak prices.
The fourth trigger is gas. TTF futures averaged EUR 43.59/MWh, up 5.5% week on week, and moved above EUR 45/MWh by the end of the week. If TTF remains firm, gas-fired generation costs will continue to support peak power prices. If TTF softens materially, the fuel-cost component of the bullish power case weakens.
The fifth trigger is cross-border flow. SEE net imports rose 28.2% to 1.25 TWh, with Hungary, Romania and Serbia increasing import dependency. If imports into these premium markets continue rising, spreads may stay supported. If exporter balances improve in Greece, Bulgaria or Türkiye, import pressure could ease.
Bullish scenario: Heat remains firm, wind stays weak, hydro does not recover, TTF holds above the mid-EUR 40s/MWh range and Hungary, Romania and Serbia continue importing heavily. Under this scenario, SEE evening peak prices remain supported and RO-HU-Serbia premiums could widen.
Base-case scenario: Demand remains firm but renewables partially recover, gas remains elevated and cross-border imports stabilise. Under this scenario, peak prices remain supported, but spreads stop widening aggressively.
Bearish scenario: Cooler weather reduces demand, wind rebounds, hydro improves, TTF softens and Serbian thermal availability normalises. Under this scenario, SEE prices ease and peak-baseload spreads narrow.
Forecast view: The near-term outlook remains supportive for SEE peak prices, but the trade is conditional. Wind, hydro, TTF and import flows are the key signals that will determine whether the Week 27 tightness extends or reverses.
