Southeast European power markets are developing a separate regional risk premium, after Week 27 showed prices rising across most SEE markets while northwest Europe softened on cooler weather and stronger wind generation.
The regional split was the main trend of the week. SEE tightened, while northwest Europe moved lower. This matters for market participants because it suggests that SEE should not be analysed simply as an extension of broader European power trends. Its price structure is increasingly driven by its own demand, hydro, renewable, thermal and cross-border conditions.
In SEE, Romania averaged EUR 164.31/MWh, Hungary EUR 162.04/MWh, Croatia EUR 142.57/MWh, Serbia EUR 139.93/MWh, Italy EUR 134.85/MWh, Bulgaria EUR 114.61/MWh and Greece EUR 112.81/MWh. Türkiye remained the lowest-priced monitored market at EUR 47.36/MWh, despite a sharp percentage increase from a low base.
Northwest Europe showed the opposite pattern. France recorded the steepest weekly decline, falling 32.1% to EUR 78.60/MWh, while Spain and Portugal fell by around 27.7% to roughly EUR 63.20/MWh. Germany, Belgium, Switzerland, Slovakia, Poland, the Netherlands, Austria and the Czech Republic also posted significant declines.
The divergence was fundamentally driven. Northwest Europe benefited from cooler weather after the late-June heat wave and stronger wind output. SEE, by contrast, saw demand rise while renewables and hydro weakened.
SEE electricity demand increased 2.1% to 18.80 TWh. Variable renewable generation declined 3.3%, wind fell 5.1%, solar slipped 1.8%, and hydro output declined 3.4%. Thermal generation then rose 6.5%, increasing the importance of dispatchable generation in regional price formation.
Cross-border flows reinforced the trend. Regional net imports rose 28.2% to 1.25 TWh, with Hungary, Romania and Serbia all increasing their import needs. Greece, Bulgaria and Türkiye remained net exporters, but their export balances narrowed.
This trend has strategic consequences. Romania and Hungary are becoming the premium-price anchors. Serbia is the stress market because of its sharp price rise and higher import dependency. Croatia remains part of the high-price corridor. Greece and Bulgaria are lower-priced regional references, but still above EUR 100/MWh.
Gas is the macro overlay. TTF futures averaged EUR 43.59/MWh, up 5.5%, and moved above EUR 45/MWh by the end of the week. When SEE relies more heavily on thermal generation, firmer gas prices can support peak power prices and widen regional risk premiums.
The trend could continue if heat persists, wind remains weak, hydro stays low, gas prices remain firm and import needs rise in Hungary, Romania and Serbia. It could reverse if cooler weather reaches SEE, wind output rebounds, hydro improves, gas prices soften or Serbian thermal availability normalises.
Trend view: SEE is trading as a distinct power-market risk zone. The key structural indicators are demand, wind, hydro, thermal generation, gas prices and cross-border imports.
