The Southeast European (SEE) electricity market has undergone a significant bullish reset as of April 29, 2026. This shift is attributed to a combination of colder weather, increased regional demand, reduced renewable energy source (RES) output, and heightened import reliance. The Hungarian Power Exchange (HUPX) recorded a settlement price of €112.66/MWh, marking an increase of €9.4/MWh from the previous day. Other regional markets also saw notable price rises: Romania reached €110.89/MWh, Bulgaria hit €101.50/MWh, Serbia settled at €107.06/MWh, Croatia at €109.76/MWh, and Slovenia at €108.93/MWh. In contrast, North Macedonia remained the lowest at €74.54/MWh, while Italy maintained its position as the premium market at €115.80/MWh.
The tightening regional balance was a primary factor in these developments. Total consumption in SEE surged to 29,312 MW, reflecting an increase of 1,234 MW compared to the prior day. Concurrently, net imports soared to 1,752 MW, representing a substantial rise of 1,509 MW. Notably, core imports from Austria and Slovakia into the Hungary/SEE perimeter climbed to 3,336 MW, indicating that Central European supply was once again essential to meet regional demand shortfalls. Meanwhile, solar and wind energy outputs fell sharply by 1,424 MW and 243 MW, respectively, which eliminated low-cost midday supply and influenced the overall daily pricing curve.
The evolving spread structure further underscores this tightening scenario. The spot spread between Hungary and Germany widened significantly to €47.31/MWh, up by €14.7/MWh, indicating that prices in Hungary and SEE are considerably higher than those in Germany. Conversely, the HU-GR spread narrowed to €15.65/MWh, suggesting that Greece’s pricing is aligning more closely with regional levels but still remains below HUPX rates. This dynamic indicates a strong import signal from the northwest while southern SEE markets continue to offer lower prices compared to Hungary.
Serbia’s trading patterns reflect alignment with core regional pricing rather than the lower Balkan fringe markets. The Serbian Power Exchange (SEEPEX) reported a price of €107.06/MWh, which is up by €10.3/MWh. This positions Serbia at €5.60/MWh below HUPX, yet above Greece, Bulgaria, Montenegro, Albania, and North Macedonia—suggesting that Serbian prices are being influenced more by trends in Hungary-Croatia-Slovenia than by cheaper southern markets.
The intraday price movements exhibited considerable volatility throughout the day. HUPX recorded a significant midday dip around hour 15, followed by a pronounced evening surge peaking around hour 21. This pattern aligns with typical April trends where solar energy diminishes midday prices; however, as solar generation declines later in the day, residual demand combined with imports leads to steep evening premiums.
The forward market indicators present a mixed outlook for traders moving forward. CEGH gas prices hovered around €46.05/MWh, while Greek gas prices softened slightly to €45.9/MWh. The EU Emissions Allowance (EUA) price increased marginally to €75.11/t . In terms of Hungarian forward power contracts, week-19 settled at €99.50/MWh , week-20 at €91.00/MWh , May-26 at €93.50/MWh , and Cal-26 at €111.50/MWh . Coal forward prices remained stable between $104.5–114.5/t , maintaining firm thermal marginal costs but not serving as the sole determinant for spot pricing.
The trading landscape on April 29 illustrates that this period was characterized not by fuel-cost increases but rather by a rebalancing driven by supply-demand dynamics in SEE-Hungary interactions—resulting in wider HU-DE spreads and lifting Serbia, Croatia, Slovenia, and Romania into the pricing band of €107–111/MWh . While midday pricing pressures persist, traders now face heightened risks associated with evening price fluctuations.
