In Week 17 (20–26 April), South-East European power markets faced notable declines, reflecting a broader correction across Europe. This downturn was primarily driven by robust renewable energy output coupled with diminished demand. Conversely, gas markets exhibited resilience due to renewed geopolitical tensions, which have established a higher baseline for forward power pricing.
Day-ahead electricity prices in the region saw substantial decreases, particularly in Croatia and Hungary, where average prices fell to €72.92/MWh (-30.3%) and €80.31/MWh (-27.3%), respectively. Romania’s prices decreased to €86.99/MWh (-17.5%), while Bulgaria experienced a drop to €81.82/MWh (-16.8%). Greece’s prices fell to €78.61/MWh (-16.2%), and Serbia recorded a smaller decline at €80.41/MWh (-11.6%), indicating tighter system conditions compared to its neighbors. Italy maintained the highest regional price at €109.12/MWh, despite experiencing a softer trend week-on-week.
This price correction mirrored developments in core European markets, where aggressive price drops were observed, particularly in Germany, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia, with reductions surpassing 40%. France saw an extreme collapse to €7.62/MWh (-89.3%), attributed to oversupply conditions fueled by high nuclear and renewable output levels.
Despite the overall downturn in Week 17, preliminary indicators for Week 18 suggest potential upward pressure on prices as day-ahead rates rebounded on April 28, ranging from €97.01/MWh in Greece to €112.66/MWh in Hungary. This volatility underscores the absence of stable downside trends within current market dynamics.
On the demand side, electricity consumption across South-East Europe decreased by -2.6% week-on-week, reversing previous growth trends. The most significant declines were reported in Italy and Türkiye at -4.1% each, while Hungary also noted a decrease of -4.1%. Conversely, Romania and Greece experienced increases of +6.5% and +3.2%, respectively, suggesting localized demand recovery influenced by weather patterns and short-term economic activities.
The supply landscape was notably affected by a sharp decline in wind generation across the region, with total variable renewable output decreasing by -11.3%. Wind production suffered a significant drop of -29.3%, while solar generation rose by +8.8%, partially mitigating losses from wind output reductions concentrated in Türkiye (-40.4%), Croatia (-22.9%), and Greece (-16.3%). Hydropower generation remained relatively stable at -1.5%, although national performances varied widely; Croatia saw an increase of +145.2%, while Serbia, Bulgaria, and Romania faced declines.
The region’s cross-border electricity flows expanded significantly during this period, with net imports rising by +39.7%. Greece and Romania transitioned from net exporters to net importers, further deepening Serbia’s import position as Italy continued as the primary net importer while Croatia’s export capacity strengthened.
Market liquidity remained concentrated predominantly in Italy, which recorded weekly traded volumes of 20,340 GWh. Other notable figures included Greece at 3,560 GWh, Bulgaria at 2,450 GWh, and Hungary at 2,260 GWh; however, Serbia showed limited activity with only 110 GWh traded over the week.
The gas market also demonstrated fluctuations with TTF front-month futures experiencing early gains before stabilizing around mid-€40/MWh levels after rising from an initial price of €40.29/MWh to a peak of €44.86/MWh during the week; averaging €43.03/MWh which marked a +1.3% week-on-week increase .
This upward momentum was fueled by geopolitical uncertainties stemming from stalled negotiations between the US and Iran along with escalating tensions near the Strait of Hormuz that have disrupted LNG flows globally—leading to projections of a cumulative loss around 120 bcm of LNG supply between 2026 and 2030—equating to approximately 15% of anticipated global supply growth.
LNG inflows into Europe presented mixed results; Greece recorded a 22% increase in LNG imports totaling 663.83 GWh whereas Italy remained dominant with 4,334.7 GWh received; however, Croatia faced a significant reduction of -60.8% in LNG flows which reflects the volatility inherent within regional LNG infrastructure utilization.
The interplay between declining renewable outputs alongside shifting cross-border electricity flows and firming gas prices suggests that while short-term price corrections may persist, the overarching market structure is likely to maintain elevated price levels along with heightened volatility throughout South-East European power markets.
