Day-ahead electricity prices in South East Europe (SEE) rose across most regional hubs on 17 June 2026, alongside stronger demand conditions and higher thermal generation. Hungary’s HUPX base price increased to €123.79/MWh, up €8.3/MWh day-on-day, while Romania reached €121.48/MWh. Bulgaria and Greece traded around €119.3/MWh, Slovenia at €118.09/MWh, and Croatia at €118.72/MWh.
Italy remained the highest reference market at €134.54/MWh, holding a €10.75/MWh premium over HUPX. Serbia stood out from the rest of the region as the main outlier in the session’s pricing.
Serbia’s SEEPEX price diverges from regional benchmarks
The SEEPEX day-ahead price in Serbia fell to €83.87/MWh, down €14.8/MWh day-on-day. The resulting discount versus Hungary widened to €39.92/MWh. Albania traded at €99.68/MWh, Montenegro at €103.74/MWh, and North Macedonia at €97.20/MWh.
The gap between Serbia and the regional core was reflected in the spread versus Hungary, with the divergence described as a temporary structural decoupling from the wider market.
Demand, temperatures and import flows shape system conditions
Regional consumption increased to 29,444 MW, up 1,200 MW day-on-day, supported by higher temperatures across SEE and Hungary. Average temperatures rose to 21.8°C, while Greece reached 24.9°C. The system moved back to a net import position of 611 MW, compared with net exports the previous day.
Cross-border inflows from the CORE region (AT+SK) increased sharply to 1,544 MW. Flows toward Italy remained negative at -841 MW, indicating continued export pressure toward the Italian market.
Generation mix shifts as wind output falls
Total generation increased to 28,437 MW, up 1,359 MW day-on-day, with supply composition highlighted alongside overall levels. Solar generation stayed strong at 6,792 MW, hydro improved to 6,084 MW, coal rose to 4,841 MW, gas surged to 4,473 MW, and nuclear increased to 4,829 MW.
Wind output was the key weakness, dropping sharply to just 685 MW, down 329 MW day-on-day. With lower wind availability during non-solar hours, thermal generation was used more heavily, contributing to stronger evening price sensitivity and higher system marginal cost.
Intraday pattern and cross-border segmentation across hubs
The session’s price formation followed a transitional summer pattern with midday solar-driven compression and an evening recovery. Reduced wind generation combined with higher demand pushed gas and coal higher in the merit order during evening ramp periods.
Cross-border flows pointed to regional segmentation: Bulgaria was the largest net exporter at approximately 1,295 MW. Croatia imported around 1,153 MW, Serbia about 508 MW, Hungary roughly 509 MW, and Romania approximately 248 MW; Greece remained close to balance with a small export position of around 33 MW.
Hourly pricing across HUPX, OPCOM, BSP and HENEX showed similar behavior of midday compression followed by evening recovery. In Hungary’s intraday range, prices ranged from about €51.7/MWh to around €192.9/MWh.
Gas and carbon ease while forward power prices rise
Fuel and carbon signals were mixed relative to spot electricity levels as gas and carbon eased slightly. CEGH gas was quoted at €43.58/MWh, Greek gas at €42.05/MWh, and EUAs at €79.85/t.
Hungarian power forwards moved higher with WK26 at €129.50/MWh, WK27 at €123.00/MWh and July 2026 at €119.00/MWh. The Hungary–Germany spread widened to €21.50/MWh.
Trading implications tied to Serbia–core spreads and transmission access
The nearly €40/MWh discount between SEEPEX and HUPX was described as unusually wide for arbitrage activity that depends on cross-border capacity and physical constraints . Monetization of spreads within the Balkan cluster was also noted as limited by transmission access and flexibility in cross-border positioning . Montenegro, Albania and North Macedonia were cited as remaining consistently discounted versus Hungary.
The session was characterized by fragmented hub pricing influenced by weather-driven volatility and structural transmission constraints affecting intraday flexibility alongside cross-border access .
