The 17 June 2026 SEE power session was defined by a broad day-ahead price recovery across most regional hubs, stronger regional demand, heavier thermal dispatch and a clear split between Serbia and the rest of the market. Hungary’s HUPX base rose to €123.79/MWh, up €8.3/MWh day on day, while Romania reached €121.48/MWh, Bulgaria and Greece both traded around €119.3/MWh, Slovenia at €118.09/MWh and Croatia at €118.72/MWh. The outlier was Serbia, where SEEPEX fell to €83.87/MWh, down €14.8/MWh, opening a very wide €39.92/MWh discount to HUPX. Albania, Montenegro and North Macedonia also remained below the core regional cluster, at €99.68/MWh, €103.74/MWh and €97.20/MWh respectively. Italy stayed the highest reference at €134.54/MWh, keeping a €10.75/MWh premium to HUPX.
The main physical signal was demand. Regional consumption increased to 29,444 MW, up 1,200 MW day on day, as the average SEE+Hungary temperature moved to 21.8°C and Greece stayed warmer at 24.9°C. The system moved back into net import, with total net imports at 611 MW, compared with a net export position the previous day, while imports from the CORE direction via AT+SK rose to 1,544 MW. The Italy-related flow remained negative at -841 MW, pointing to continued export pressure toward the Italian direction rather than an import cushion from Italy.
Generation data show the market tightening was not caused by a collapse in total supply, but by the shape of the mix. Total generation rose to 28,437 MW, up 1,359 MW day on day. Solar stayed high at 6,792 MW, hydro improved to 6,084 MW, coal increased to 4,841 MW, gas jumped sharply to 4,473 MW, and nuclear rose to 4,829 MW. The weak point was wind, which fell to only 685 MW, down 329 MW. That combination explains the price structure: solar remained a strong midday suppressor, but lower wind and stronger demand forced more gas and coal into the stack, lifting baseload and especially evening-hour risk.
The cross-border balance confirms the split. The page 2 power balance chart shows Bulgaria as the major net exporter at about 1,295 MW, while Croatia was a net importer by around 1,153 MW, Serbia by 508 MW, Hungary by 509 MW and Romania by 248 MW. Greece was close to balance with a small export position of roughly 33 MW. In market terms, Bulgaria’s export role supported the eastern SEE curve, while Serbia’s much lower day-ahead price suggests either local oversupply, weaker internal demand, constrained export monetisation, or a temporary bidding structure that prevented full convergence with Hungary, Croatia and Romania.
The hourly profile points to a classic summer shape: midday solar compression followed by a sharper evening premium. HUPX, OPCOM, BSP and HENEX all show lower prices during the solar window and a stronger evening ramp. Hungary’s daily table shows HUPX off-peak at €147.8/MWh, above the €99.8/MWh peak measure reported in the file’s structure, with a minimum of €51.7/MWh and maximum of €192.9/MWh. Germany, Romania and Slovenia displayed similar midday troughs and evening recovery, showing that the market is increasingly shaped by intraday residual load rather than by flat baseload scarcity.
Forward and fuel signals were mixed but important. Spot power strengthened even as gas and carbon eased slightly: CEGH gas fell to €43.58/MWh, Greek gas to €42.05/MWh, and EUA slipped to €79.85/t. At the same time, Hungarian power forwards moved higher, with WK26 rising to €129.50/MWh, WK27 to €123.00/MWh and July 2026 to €119.00/MWh. The Hungarian premium over Germany also widened, with the July HU-DE spread at €21.50/MWh. That means traders are not pricing the move as a fuel-cost rally alone. The premium is coming from regional delivery risk: weather-driven demand, lower wind, import dependence, evening ramp scarcity and grid-constrained convergence.
For traders, the most relevant spread is no longer just Hungary versus Germany, but Serbia versus the regional core. A nearly €40/MWh SEEPEX discount to HUPX is too wide to ignore, but its monetisation depends on available ATC, allocated capacity and operational flow constraints. The wider Balkan cluster also remains segmented: Montenegro traded €20.05/MWh below HUPX, Albania €24.11/MWh below HUPX, and North Macedonia €26.59/MWh below HUPX. That creates theoretical northbound arbitrage, but the actual value is likely captured only by parties with firm cross-border capacity and predictable nomination optionality.
