Almost all Southeast Europe and Central European day-ahead prices moved sharply higher following the Sunday low on 15 June 2026. HUPX increased to €91.89/MWh, up €31.9/MWh day on day, while Romania settled at €90.24/MWh, Slovenia at €87.85/MWh, Croatia at €87.23/MWh, Greece at €86.75/MWh and Bulgaria at €85.71/MWh. The regional price floor remained in Serbia, where SEEPEX settled at €53.40/MWh, still €38.49/MWh below HUPX. Italy set the upper anchor at €130.02/MWh, which was €38.13/MWh above HUPX.
Regional price map splits between core, Serbia discount and Italy premium
The pricing outcome left the market split into three distinct areas. A tightly clustered core covered HU/RO/BG/GR/SI/HR, a discounted Western Balkans pocket was led by Serbia, and Italy cleared at a higher level than the rest of the region. The spread between HUPX and the Serbian SEEPEX settlement remained the largest internal gap cited in the session data.
Load recovery and lower net imports shape Monday’s move
The demand signal was identified as the main driver of the rebound. Regional consumption rose to 28.944 GW, up 3.337 GW day on day, while total net imports fell to 1.652 GW, down 1.325 GW from Sunday. The combination indicated that Monday’s higher load was partly absorbed by stronger internal generation and stronger solar output rather than by a proportional increase in imports.
Core imports from Austria and Slovakia into HU/SI remained large at 2.970 GW, but were lower by 1.159 GW. The region exported 1.055 GW toward Italy, aligned with Italy’s much higher clearing price relative to HUPX.
Solar forecast jumps while wind remains comparatively steady
Solar was described as the decisive intraday shaping factor for price profiles. The regional solar forecast increased to 7.296 GW, up 2.812 GW day on day, while wind was only 1.160 GW, up just 77 MW. This generation mix was linked to strong midday price compression alongside an evening scarcity profile.
On HUPX, the daily minimum occurred around the solar-heavy midday period, while the maximum shifted into the evening. Hungary’s spot profile showed a sharp rise after the daytime trough, with risk increasingly concentrated in the transition from solar surplus into evening residual demand.
Cross-border balances show uneven import burdens across countries
The HU+SEE region remained a net importer by 1.652 GW.
The burden was not evenly distributed across markets in the cross-border balance picture. Croatia was listed as the largest importer at -1.141 GW, followed by Romania at -904 MW, Serbia at -418 MW, and Hungary at -269 MW. On the export side, Bulgaria exported 489 MW and Greece exported 264 MW, with Albania also positive in detailed country data.
The physical balance did not fully match the price map in Serbia’s case, where SEEPEX remained deeply discounted despite an import-dependent system position. The analysis pointed to congestion, local bidding structure and limited market coupling effects rather than a fully efficient regional price signal.
Serbia shows low pricing alongside net import positioning and coal-heavy supply
SEEPEX at €53.40/MWh remained far below HUPX and other regional prices.
Bulgaria supports balances while Greece returns to net exports; Croatia remains short on supply-demand terms
Bulgaria’s consumption reached 3.807 GW, with generation of 4.296 GW, supporting exports of 489 MW. Flows were described as turning strongly toward Romania and Serbia in detailed border data.
Greece returned to a net export position of 264 MW, with generation at 6.072 GW against consumption of 5.808 GW. Croatia stayed structurally short: consumption was 1.939 GW, generation only 798 MW, and net imports were listed at -1.141 GW.
Softer forward pricing contrasts with Monday’s spot rally; gas and coal decline while EUA holds flat
The forward market did not reprice upward in line with Monday’s day-ahead rally for Hungary power contracts, according to the session data provided for Week 25 through Cal-26. Hungarian power forwards softened with Week 25 at €107.50/MWh, Week 26 at €120/MWh, July 2026 at €119/MWh and Cal-26 at €113/MWh, with only the nearest HU-DE spread line noted as higher.
{{Gas forwards and coal also moved down}} while EUA held flat at {77.17/t}. That pattern was linked to load recovery, daily shape and congestion rather than a broader fuel-cost shock in spot pricing.
Tighter near-term conditions expected as temperatures rise; trading watchpoints focus on spreads and evening hours
The near-term bias was described as firmer but volatile based on weather expectations for rising temperatures through the week, especially in Hungary, Serbia and Croatia, while Greece remained warm.
If solar stays strong, midday prices were expected to remain compressed while evening prices retain premium risk where imports from CORE and Italy-facing flows tighten available capacity.
The key trading watchpoints were listed as HUPX evening hours, Serbia-Hungary and Serbia-Croatia spread monetisation, Croatia’s import dependence, Bulgaria-Romania flows, and Italy’s persistent premium over the SEE core.
